Chris Backemeyer
Democratic
Raised$1.0M
Cash on hand$546K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · All Nebraska races
Nebraska District 1
Lean RCould flip · R → D
Republicans hold this seat today (current holder); Democrats have a real chance: 37 in 100 that it changes hands.
Chris Backemeyer
Democratic
37 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Mike Flood
Republican · incumbent
63 in 100
Mike Flood wins in 63 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Chris Backemeyer +6.1 across 1 poll; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Mike Flood +9.1. Polls get 52% of the weight 15 days out.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Flood +1.3; 80 in 100 fall between Flood +6.2 and Backemeyer +3.7.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Mike FloodIncumbent
Republican · American politician (born 1975)
Michael John Flood is an American attorney, businessman, and politician serving as the U.S. representative for Nebraska's 1st congressional district since July 2022. Wikipedia
Raised$2.7M
Cash on hand$1.2M
Through 2026-09-30
Daniel Hartong
America First
Nik Sandman
Libertarian
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →
Polls
The polling average stands at Backemeyer +6.1 across 1 poll testing Chris Backemeyer against Mike Flood.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy GroupB+ · DEM sponsor for Fight for Nebraska | Aug 31–Sep 3 | 600 LV | Backemeyer +4.0 | Backemeyer +6.1 | 0.26 |
| Tavern Research | May 16–May 19 | 1,079 LV | Flood +2.0 | Backemeyer +2.1 | 0.00 |
| Zenith Research | May 8–May 11 | 371 LV | Flood +7.0 | Flood +5.1 | 0.00 |
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Backemeyer 37, Flood 63.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 52% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Backemeyer +6.1 | ±7.8 sampling range; effective 1 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+6.0 | roughly 12 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Flood +2.0 | In 2024 they ran 4.0 pts more Republican than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Flood +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Flood +9.1 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Flood +1.2 | ±4.0 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Chris Backemeyer 87 in 100 (Likely D)
- Polls + fundamentals: Chris Backemeyer 37 in 100 (Lean R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Chris Backemeyer 37 in 100 (Lean R)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #9 of 421