Democrats hold this seat today (current holder); Republicans have a real chance: 40 in 100 that it changes hands.
Matthew Dunlap wins in 60 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Matthew Dunlap +1.4.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Dunlap +1.4; 80 in 100 fall between LePage +5.8 and Dunlap +8.7.
Matthew Dunlap is an American politician from Maine who has served as the Maine state auditor since November 2022. He previously held the same position from January to October 2021. Wikipedia
Paul Richard LePage is an American businessman and politician who served as the 74th governor of Maine from 2011 to 2019. A member of the Republican Party, he previously served as the mayor of Waterville, Maine, from 2004 to 2011 and as a city councilor for Waterville from 1998 to 2002. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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The polling average stands at — across 0 polls testing Matthew Dunlap against Paul LePage.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficientB · REP sponsor for NRCC | Apr 25–Apr 29 | 918 LV | LePage +10.0 | LePage +3.9 | 0.00 |
| University of New HampshireB+ | Feb 12–Feb 16 | 521 LV | LePage +1.0 | Dunlap +2.3 | 0.00 |
| University of New HampshireB+ | Feb 12–Feb 16 | 522 LV | LePage +1.0 | Dunlap +2.3 | 0.00 |
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Dunlap 60, LePage 40.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+4.0 | roughly 8 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | Dunlap +1.4 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Dunlap +1.4 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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