Republicans hold this seat today (current holder); Democrats have a real chance: 42 in 100 that it changes hands.
Brian Fitzpatrick wins in 58 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Brian Fitzpatrick +3.3 across 1 poll; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Bob Harvie +1.9. Polls get 52% of the weight 15 days out.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Fitzpatrick +0.8; 80 in 100 fall between Fitzpatrick +5.8 and Harvie +4.2.
Brian Kevin Fitzpatrick is an American politician, attorney, and former FBI agent serving in the U.S. House of Representatives since 2017. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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The polling average stands at Fitzpatrick +3.3 across 1 poll testing Bob Harvie against Brian Fitzpatrick.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GQRB− · DEM sponsor for House Majority PAC | Aug 19–Aug 23 | 400 LV | Fitzpatrick +1.0 | Fitzpatrick +3.3 | 0.19 |
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Harvie 42, Fitzpatrick 58.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 52% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Fitzpatrick +3.3 | ±7.8 sampling range; effective 1 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+1.0 | roughly 2 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Fitzpatrick +5.0 | In 2024 they ran 10.1 pts more Republican than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Fitzpatrick +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Harvie +1.9 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Fitzpatrick +0.8 | ±4.0 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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