Chris Gallant
Democratic
Elections will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the 26 U.S. representatives from the state of New York, one from each of the state's congressional districts. Wikipedia
Raised$1.6M
Cash on hand$610K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · All New York races
New York District 1
Toss-upCould flip · R → D
Republicans hold this seat today (current holder); Democrats have a real chance: 42 in 100 that it changes hands.
Chris Gallant
Democratic
42 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Nick LaLota
Republican · incumbent
58 in 100
Nick LaLota wins in 58 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Nick LaLota +1.1.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin LaLota +1.1; 80 in 100 fall between LaLota +8.4 and Gallant +6.2.
The candidates
Nick LaLotaIncumbent
Republican · American politician and businessman (born 1978)
Nicholas Joseph LaLota is an American politician and veteran serving since 2023 as the U.S. representative for New York's 1st congressional district. He is a member of the Republican Party. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →
Polls
The polling average stands at — across 0 polls testing Chris Gallant against Nick LaLota.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy PollingA− · DEM sponsor for House Majority PAC | Dec 10–Dec 11 | 579 A | LaLota +3.0 | Gallant +0.3 | 0.00 |
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Gallant 42, LaLota 58.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+4.0 | roughly 8 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Gallant +1.0 | In 2024 they ran 1.9 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | LaLota +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | LaLota +1.1 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | LaLota +1.1 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Chris Gallant 42 in 100 (Toss-up)
- Polls + fundamentals: Chris Gallant 42 in 100 (Toss-up)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Chris Gallant 42 in 100 (Toss-up)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #6 of 421