Bale Dalton
Democratic
Raised$2.1M
Cash on hand$444K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · open seat · All Florida races
Florida District 7
Toss-upLikely flip · R → D
Republicans hold this seat today (the sitting member’s party; the lines are new); Democrats are favored: 56 in 100 that it changes hands.
Bale Dalton
Democratic
56 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Ryan Elijah
Republican
44 in 100
Bale Dalton wins in 56 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Bale Dalton +0.8.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Dalton +0.9; 80 in 100 fall between Elijah +6.5 and Dalton +8.2.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Ryan Elijah
Republican
Raised$703K
Cash on hand$233K
Through 2026-09-30
Christopher Dennison
Libertarian
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →
Polls
No public polls have tested Bale Dalton against Ryan Elijah yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Dalton 56, Elijah 44.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+5.0 | roughly 10 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | Dalton +0.8 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Dalton +0.8 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Bale Dalton 56 in 100 (Toss-up)
- Polls + fundamentals: Bale Dalton 56 in 100 (Toss-up)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Bale Dalton 56 in 100 (Toss-up)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent lost renomination
House races, closest first · this is #5 of 421