Republicans hold this seat today (current holder); Democrats have a real chance: 44 in 100 that it changes hands.
Bill Huizenga wins in 56 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Bill Huizenga +0.9.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Huizenga +0.9; 80 in 100 fall between Huizenga +8.2 and McCann +6.4.
William Patrick Huizenga is an American politician serving as a U.S. representative from Michigan since 2011, representing the state's 4th congressional district since 2023. A member of the Republican Party, Huizenga served in the Michigan House of Representatives from 2003 to 2009. Wikipedia
Sean Andrew McCann is the senator for the Michigan Senate's 19th district. He formerly represented the 20th senate district. He is a former member of the Michigan House of Representatives, who represented the 60th district. He is a member of the Democratic Party. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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The polling average stands at — across 0 polls testing Sean McCann against Bill Huizenga.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy PollingA− · DEM sponsor | Nov 20–Nov 21 | 559 RV | Huizenga +2.0 | McCann +1.6 | 0.00 |
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: McCann 44, Huizenga 56.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+3.0 | roughly 6 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Huizenga +0.6 | In 2024 they ran 1.3 pts more Republican than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Huizenga +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Huizenga +0.9 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Huizenga +0.9 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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