Republicans hold this seat today (current holder); Democrats have a real chance: 46 in 100 that it changes hands.
Aaron Flint wins in 54 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Aaron Flint +0.7 across 1 poll; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Aaron Flint +0.0. Polls get 52% of the weight 15 days out.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Flint +0.4; 80 in 100 fall between Flint +5.4 and Forstag +4.6.
The 2026 United States House of Representatives elections in Montana will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the two U.S. representatives from the state of Montana, one from each of the state's congressional districts. Wikipedia
Sam Forstag is an American labor union leader and former smokejumper who is the Democratic Party nominee in the 2026 election for the Montana 1st congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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The polling average stands at Flint +0.7 across 1 poll testing Sam Forstag against Aaron Flint.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Pulse Research & PollingC for KULR-TV | Sep 19–Sep 24 | 314 LV | Flint +0.5 | Flint +0.7 | 0.25 |
| Upswing Research · DEM sponsor for 314 Action | Apr 30–May 5 | 401 LV | Flint +5.0 | Flint +2.3 | 0.00 |
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Forstag 46, Flint 54.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 52% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Flint +0.7 | ±7.8 sampling range; effective 1 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+5.0 | roughly 10 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | Flint +0.0 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Flint +0.4 | ±4.0 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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