Mitchell Berman
Democratic
Raised$1.6M
Cash on hand$338K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · All Wisconsin races
Wisconsin District 1
Toss-upLikely flip · R → D
Republicans hold this seat today (current holder); Democrats are favored: 54 in 100 that it changes hands.
Mitchell Berman
Democratic
54 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Bryan Steil
Republican · incumbent
46 in 100
Mitchell Berman wins in 54 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Mitchell Berman +0.8 across 2 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Bryan Steil +0.3. Polls get 61% of the weight 15 days out.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Berman +0.3; 80 in 100 fall between Steil +4.3 and Berman +4.9.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Bryan SteilIncumbent
Republican · American politician (born 1981)
Bryan George Steil is an American attorney, businessman, and Republican politician from Janesville, Wisconsin. He is a member of the United States House of Representatives, representing Wisconsin's 1st congressional district since 2019. Since 2023, he has served as chair of the House Administration Committee. Wikipedia
Raised$6.3M
Cash on hand$4.2M
Through 2026-09-30
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →
Polls
The polling average stands at Berman +0.8 across 2 polls testing Mitchell Berman against Bryan Steil.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact ResearchC+ · DEM sponsor for House Majority PAC | Sep 28–Oct 1 | 500 LV | Berman +1.0 | Berman +1.2 | 0.22 |
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics DepartmentC+ · DEM sponsor | Sep 21–Sep 23 | 495 LV | Berman +0.0 | Berman +0.2 | 0.19 |
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Berman 54, Steil 46.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 61% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Berman +0.8 | ±4.9 sampling range; effective 2 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+2.0 | roughly 4 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Steil +0.8 | In 2024 they ran 1.7 pts more Republican than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Steil +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Steil +0.3 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Berman +0.3 | ±3.5 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Mitchell Berman 57 in 100 (Toss-up)
- Polls + fundamentals: Mitchell Berman 54 in 100 (Toss-up)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Mitchell Berman 54 in 100 (Toss-up)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #2 of 421