Democrats hold this seat today (the sitting member’s party; the lines are new); Republicans are favored: 52 in 100 that it changes hands.
Rhett Marques wins in 52 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Rhett Marques +0.3.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Marques +0.3; 80 in 100 fall between Marques +7.6 and Figures +7.0.
Shomari Coleman Figures is an American politician and attorney serving as the U.S. representative from Alabama's 2nd congressional district since 2025. A member of the Democratic Party, Figures was first elected in 2024. Wikipedia
Rhett William Marques is an American politician and businessman serving as a Republican member of the Alabama House of Representatives from the 91st district. He assumed office on November 7, 2018. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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No public polls have tested Shomari Figures against Rhett Marques yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Figures 48, Marques 52.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+7.0 | roughly 14 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Figures +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Marques +0.3 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Marques +0.3 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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