Republicans hold this seat today (current holder); Democrats have a real chance: 32 in 100 that it changes hands.
French Hill wins in 68 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Chris Jones +5.8 across 1 poll; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to French Hill +10.0. Polls get 52% of the weight 15 days out.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Hill +1.8; 80 in 100 fall between Hill +6.9 and Jones +3.2.
James French Hill is an American businessman and politician serving as the U.S. representative for Arkansas's 2nd congressional district since 2015. He is a member of the Republican Party. Wikipedia
Christopher Michael Jones is an American politician and the Democratic nominee for Congressional District 02. He was the Democratic Party nominee for governor of Arkansas in the 2022 election. Born in Pine Bluff, Arkansas, he attended Morehouse College and graduate school at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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The polling average stands at Jones +5.8 across 1 poll testing Chris Jones against French Hill.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hendrix CollegeA for Talk Business & Politics | Aug 12–Aug 13 | 1,112 LV | Jones +4.0 | Jones +5.8 | 0.78 |
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Jones 32, Hill 68.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 52% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Jones +5.8 | ±7.8 sampling range; effective 1 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+8.0 | roughly 16 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Jones +1.1 | In 2024 they ran 2.2 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Hill +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Hill +10.0 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Hill +1.8 | ±4.0 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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