Republicans hold this seat today (the sitting member’s party; the lines are new); Democrats have a real chance: 29 in 100 that it changes hands.
Mike Carey wins in 71 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Don Leonard +0.3 across 2 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Mike Carey +5.4. Polls get 60% of the weight 15 days out.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Carey +2.0; 80 in 100 fall between Carey +6.6 and Leonard +2.7.
Michael Todd Whitaker Carey is an American politician and former coal lobbyist serving as the U.S. representative for Ohio's 15th congressional district. A member of the Republican Party, Carey was first elected in a 2021 special election. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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The polling average stands at Leonard +0.3 across 2 polls testing Don Leonard against Mike Carey.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hart Research AssociatesB+ · DEM sponsor for House Majority PAC | Sep 22–Sep 24 | 500 LV | Leonard +1.0 | Leonard +1.2 | 0.26 |
| Hart Research AssociatesB+ · DEM sponsor for House Majority PAC | Jun 23–Jun 25 | 550 LV | Carey +5.0 | Carey +2.4 | 0.09 |
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Leonard 29, Carey 71.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 60% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Leonard +0.3 | ±5.4 sampling range; effective 1.6 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+5.0 | roughly 10 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Carey +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Carey +5.4 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Carey +2.0 | ±3.6 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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