Ned Lamont wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Ned Lamont +17.2 across 7 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Ned Lamont +24.9. Polls get 91% of the weight 15 days out.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Lamont +17.9; 80 in 100 fall between Lamont +12.7 and Lamont +22.9.
Ryan Michael Fazio is an American businessman and politician who is a member of the Connecticut State Senate for the 36th district. A member of the Republican Party, he won election in 2021 following the resignation of Democratic incumbent Alexandra Kasser, and was re-elected in 2022 and 2024. Wikipedia
Edward Miner Lamont Jr. is an American politician and businessman serving since 2019 as the 89th governor of Connecticut. Wikipedia
Official website ↗Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.
The polling average stands at Lamont +17.2 across 7 polls testing Ned Lamont against Ryan Fazio.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson CollegeA− for Nexstar Media | Oct 10–Oct 12 | 800 LV | Lamont +13.6 | Lamont +14.0 | 1.05 |
| Quinnipiac UniversityB+ | Oct 8–Oct 12 | 702 LV | Lamont +20.0 | Lamont +17.7 | 0.84 |
| Wesleyan University Survey Lab/YouGovA− for CT Mirror, The Connecticut Project | Sep 22–Oct 7 | — LV | Lamont +23.0 | Lamont +21.9 | 0.58 |
| University of New HampshireB+ | Sep 17–Sep 21 | 540 LV | Lamont +17.0 | Lamont +17.3 | 0.20 |
| University of New HampshireB+ | Aug 20–Aug 24 | 809 LV | Lamont +15.0 | Lamont +16.1 | 0.09 |
| GreatBlue ResearchB− for CT Insider, WFSB (Hartford), Sacred Heart University Institute for Public Policy and Civic Engagement | Jul 21–Jul 26 | 1,000 RV | Lamont +20.2 | Lamont +21.6 | 0.06 |
| University of New HampshireB+ | Jun 18–Jun 23 | 828 LV | Lamont +13.0 | Lamont +14.4 | 0.01 |
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Lamont 100, Fazio 0.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 91% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Lamont +17.2 | ±3.6 sampling range; effective 3.7 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+8.0 | roughly 16 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Fazio +0.8 | In 2022 they ran 1.5 pts more Republican than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Lamont +4.0 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Lamont +24.9 | ±14 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | Lamont +20.4 | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Lamont +17.9 | ±4.0 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.
County detail isn’t shown for Connecticut: Connecticut reports results by town, and the county shapes no longer match.
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