Governor · All Illinois races

Illinois

Solid D

Compare

JB Pritzker

Democratic · incumbent

>99 in 100

chance of winning, out of 100

Darren Bailey

Republican

<1 in 100

JB Pritzker wins in >99 of 100 simulations.

The polling average has JB Pritzker +20.0 across 1 poll; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to JB Pritzker +24.0. Polls get 86% of the weight 15 days out.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Pritzker +20.5; 80 in 100 fall between Pritzker +14.0 and Pritzker +27.0.

The candidates

Darren Bailey

Republican · American politician (born 1966)

Darren Bailey is an American politician who was a Republican member of the Illinois Senate for the 55th District and previously a member of the Illinois House of Representatives for the 109th District in Southern Illinois. Wikipedia

Official website ↗

JB PritzkerIncumbent

Democratic · Governor of Illinois since 2019

Jay Robert Pritzker is an American politician, philanthropist, and businessman serving since 2019 as the 43rd governor of Illinois. He is a member of the Democratic Party. Wikipedia

Official website ↗

Collin Corbett

Independent

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

Polls

The polling average stands at Pritzker +20.0 across 1 poll testing JB Pritzker against Darren Bailey.

Pritzker +0.1 over the past 6 months

Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Result	Adjusted	Weight
Public Policy PollingA− · DEM sponsor for Chicago News Weekly	Sep 30–Oct 1	569 LV	Pritzker +20.0	Pritzker +20.0	0.29
Victory ResearchB−	Nov 20–Nov 24	1,208 LV	Pritzker +20.0	Pritzker +22.3	0.00

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

Pritzker +5 over the past 3 months

Out of 100. Today: Pritzker 100, Bailey 0.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 86% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)	Pritzker +20.0	±7.8 sampling range; effective 1 polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines)	D+6.0	roughly 12 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment	D+9.6	generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbent’s track record	Pritzker +1.4	In 2022 they ran 2.8 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10)
Incumbency	Pritzker +4.0	incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimate	Pritzker +24.0	±14 typical error
Expert ratings (average)	Pritzker +20.4	used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
Forecast	Pritzker +20.5	±5.1 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

Polls only: JB Pritzker >99 in 100 (Solid D)
Polls + fundamentals: JB Pritzker >99 in 100 (Solid D)
Polls + fundamentals + experts: JB Pritzker >99 in 100 (Solid D)

Published ratings

Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.

Cook: Solid DDDHQ: Likely DFox News: Solid DInside Elections: Solid DRCP: Solid DSabato: Safe DSilver Bulletin: Solid D

County map

Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.

Color shows the 2024 presidential margin in each county. Hover or tap a county for its numbers.

2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.

Rules and notes

Incumbent renominated

Governor races, closest first · this is #32 of 36