Josh Shapiro wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Josh Shapiro +21.2 across 9 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Josh Shapiro +22.1. Polls get 92% of the weight 15 days out.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Shapiro +21.2; 80 in 100 fall between Shapiro +16.4 and Shapiro +26.1.
Stacy L. Garrity is an American politician, businesswoman, and former United States Army Reserve officer who has served as the 79th treasurer of Pennsylvania since 2021. A Republican, she defeated incumbent Democrat Joe Torsella in 2020 despite being outraised and trailing in polls. Wikipedia
Joshua David Shapiro is an American politician and lawyer serving since 2023 as the 48th governor of Pennsylvania. A member of the Democratic Party, he was the attorney general of Pennsylvania from 2017 to 2023 and served on the Montgomery County Board of Commissioners from 2012 to 2017. Wikipedia
Official website ↗Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.
The polling average stands at Shapiro +21.2 across 9 polls testing Josh Shapiro against Stacy Garrity.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z to A Research | Sep 28–Oct 1 | 630 LV | Shapiro +19.0 | Shapiro +19.0 | 0.52 |
| The New York Times/Siena UniversityA for The Philadelphia Inquirer | Sep 15–Sep 22 | 615 LV | Shapiro +20.0 | Shapiro +21.6 | 0.37 |
| Bravo Group for PennLive | Sep 16–Sep 22 | 624 RV | Shapiro +27.0 | Shapiro +23.7 | 0.24 |
| Franklin & Marshall CollegeB− | Aug 17–Aug 23 | 501 RV | Shapiro +25.0 | Shapiro +25.3 | 0.21 |
| Bravo Group for PennLive | Aug 18–Aug 22 | 711 LV | Shapiro +31.0 | Shapiro +28.7 | 0.13 |
| The New York Times/Siena UniversityA for The Philadelphia Inquirer | Aug 17–Aug 21 | 760 LV | Shapiro +16.0 | Shapiro +18.6 | 0.21 |
| The New York Times/Siena UniversityA for The Philadelphia Inquirer | Aug 17–Aug 21 | 760 RV | Shapiro +17.0 | Shapiro +19.7 | 0.21 |
| National Public Affairs · REP sponsor | Jul 26–Jul 30 | 600 LV | Shapiro +7.0 | Shapiro +10.8 | 0.06 |
| Bravo Group for PennLive | Jul 17–Jul 24 | 630 LV | Shapiro +25.0 | Shapiro +22.9 | 0.06 |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion ResearchB− | Jun 8–Jun 14 | 546 RV | Shapiro +22.0 | Shapiro +23.0 | 0.00 |
| MAD Global StrategyB+ for Natural Allies for a Clean Energy Future | Jun 9–Jun 11 | 600 LV | Shapiro +17.0 | Shapiro +19.7 | 0.00 |
| Bravo Group for PennLive | May 20–May 24 | 684 LV | Shapiro +24.0 | Shapiro +21.6 | 0.00 |
| Susquehanna Polling & ResearchB+ · REP sponsor | Mar 18–Mar 29 | 700 LV | Shapiro +22.0 | Shapiro +22.8 | 0.00 |
| Franklin & Marshall CollegeB− | Feb 18–Mar 1 | 834 RV | Shapiro +20.0 | Shapiro +21.1 | 0.00 |
| Quinnipiac UniversityB+ | Feb 19–Feb 23 | 836 RV | Shapiro +18.0 | Shapiro +17.6 | 0.00 |
| Quinnipiac UniversityB+ | Sep 25–Sep 29 | 1,579 RV | Shapiro +16.0 | Shapiro +16.9 | 0.00 |
| Susquehanna Polling & ResearchB+ | Sep 22–Sep 28 | 700 LV | Shapiro +18.0 | Shapiro +20.2 | 0.00 |
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Shapiro 100, Garrity 0.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 92% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Shapiro +21.2 | ±2.7 sampling range; effective 6.5 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+1.0 | roughly 2 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Shapiro +10.0 | In 2022 they ran 20.8 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Shapiro +4.0 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Shapiro +22.1 | ±14 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | Shapiro +22.0 | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Shapiro +21.3 | ±3.9 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.
Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.
2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.
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