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Xavier Becerra

Democratic

>99 in 100

chance of winning, out of 100

Steve Hilton

Republican

<1 in 100

Xavier Becerra wins in >99 of 100 simulations.

The polling average has Xavier Becerra +21.7 across 4 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Xavier Becerra +27.6. Polls get 91% of the weight 15 days out.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Becerra +22.2; 80 in 100 fall between Becerra +17.1 and Becerra +27.2.

The candidates

Xavier Becerra

Democratic · American attorney and politician (born 1958)

Xavier Becerra is an American attorney and politician who served as the 25th United States secretary of health and human services under President Joe Biden from 2021 to 2025. A member of the Democratic Party, Becerra previously served as the 33rd attorney general of California from 2017 to 2021 and as a U.S. Wikipedia

Official website ↗

Steve Hilton

Republican · British-American political advisor and TV host (born 1969)

Stephen Glenn Charles Hilton is a British-born American conservative political commentator, former political adviser, and contributor for the Fox News Channel. He served as director of strategy for British prime minister David Cameron from 2010 to 2012. Wikipedia

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

Polls

The polling average stands at Becerra +21.7 across 4 polls testing Xavier Becerra against Steve Hilton.

Hilton +3.9 since Jun 17, 2026

Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Result	Adjusted	Weight
SurveyUSAA− for KGTV (San Diego), The San Diego Union Tribune	Sep 15–Sep 20	742 LV	Becerra +22.0	Becerra +22.2	0.71
UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies for Los Angeles Times	Sep 15–Sep 20	4,512 LV	Becerra +25.0	Becerra +24.7	0.68
University of California Berkeley Jack Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research/Verasight/TrueDot for Politico	Sep 11–Sep 16	1,983 LV	Becerra +18.0	Becerra +19.4	0.73
UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies for Los Angeles Times	Aug 3–Aug 9	2,310 LV	Becerra +18.0	Becerra +18.3	0.27
Kreate Strategies	Jun 13–Jun 17	900 LV	Becerra +25.0	Becerra +27.0	0.00

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months

Out of 100. Today: Becerra 100, Hilton 0.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 91% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)	Becerra +21.7	±3.6 sampling range; effective 3.6 polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines)	D+12.0	roughly 24 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment	D+9.6	generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbency	none	open seat or incumbent not on ballot
Fundamentals estimate	Becerra +27.6	±14 typical error
Expert ratings (average)	Becerra +22.0	used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
Forecast	Becerra +22.2	±4.0 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

Polls only: Xavier Becerra >99 in 100 (Solid D)
Polls + fundamentals: Xavier Becerra >99 in 100 (Solid D)
Polls + fundamentals + experts: Xavier Becerra >99 in 100 (Solid D)

Published ratings

Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.

Cook: Solid DDDHQ: Safe DFox News: Solid DInside Elections: Solid DRCP: Solid DSabato: Safe DSilver Bulletin: Solid D

County map

Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.

Color shows the 2024 presidential margin in each county. Hover or tap a county for its numbers.

2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.

Rules and notes

Top-two primary state: the two general-election candidates can be from the same party.
Term-limited

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