Wes Moore wins in 100 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Wes Moore +27.2 across 2 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Wes Moore +39.3. Polls get 89% of the weight 15 days out.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Moore +28.5; 80 in 100 fall between Moore +22.9 and Moore +34.2.
Daniel Lewis Cox is an American politician and lawyer, and perennial candidate. He was a Republican member of the Maryland House of Delegates, representing the fourth district from 2019 to 2023. Wikipedia
Official website ↗Westley Watende Omari Moore is an American politician, businessman, author, and U.S. Army veteran serving as the 63rd governor of Maryland since 2023. Wikipedia
Official website ↗Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.
The polling average stands at Moore +27.2 across 2 polls testing Wes Moore against Dan Cox.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Maryland Baltimore County Institute of Politics | Sep 22–Sep 27 | 776 LV | Moore +27.0 | Moore +27.0 | 0.68 |
| Zenith Research · DEM sponsor for Perry Jacobson, Blended Public Affairs | Jul 27–Aug 3 | 800 LV | Moore +27.0 | Moore +28.0 | 0.18 |
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Moore 100, Cox 0.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 89% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Moore +27.2 | ±5.6 sampling range; effective 1.5 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+15.0 | roughly 30 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Moore +3.2 | In 2022 they ran 6.4 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Moore +4.0 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Moore +39.3 | ±14 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | Moore +22.0 | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Moore +28.5 | ±4.5 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.
Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.
2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.
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