Helena Foulkes wins in 100 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Helena Foulkes +27.3 across 1 poll; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Helena Foulkes +21.6. Polls get 86% of the weight 15 days out.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Foulkes +26.5; 80 in 100 fall between Foulkes +20.0 and Foulkes +33.0.
Helena Grace Buonanno Foulkes is an American businesswoman and politician. She was the chief executive officer of Hudson's Bay Company and a marketing executive at CVS Pharmacy. Wikipedia
Official website ↗The 2022 Rhode Island lieutenant gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the lieutenant governor of the state of Rhode Island. The election coincided with various other federal and state elections, including for Governor of Rhode Island. Primary elections were held on September 13. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.
The polling average stands at Foulkes +27.3 across 1 poll testing Helena Foulkes against Aaron Guckian.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New HampshireB+ | Sep 17–Sep 21 | 598 LV | Foulkes +27.0 | Foulkes +27.3 | 0.52 |
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Foulkes 100, Guckian 0.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 86% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Foulkes +27.3 | ±7.8 sampling range; effective 1 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+8.0 | roughly 16 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | Foulkes +21.6 | ±14 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | Foulkes +22.0 | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Foulkes +26.5 | ±5.1 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.
Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.
2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.
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