Kathy Hochul wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Kathy Hochul +14.7 across 10 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Kathy Hochul +21.8. Polls get 91% of the weight 15 days out.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Hochul +15.3; 80 in 100 fall between Hochul +10.3 and Hochul +20.3.
Bruce Arthur Blakeman is an American attorney and politician currently serving as the 10th county executive of Nassau County, New York. A Republican, Blakeman was first elected in 2021, defeating Democratic incumbent Laura Curran and becoming the county's first Jewish county executive. Wikipedia
Official website ↗Kathleen Mary Hochul is an American politician and lawyer who has served since 2021 as the 57th governor of New York. A member of the Democratic Party, she is New York's first female governor. Wikipedia
Official website ↗Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.
The polling average stands at Hochul +14.7 across 10 polls testing Kathy Hochul against Bruce Blakeman.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beacon ResearchD for Secure AI Project | Oct 1–Oct 6 | 820 RV | Hochul +22.0 | Hochul +20.6 | 0.32 |
| Emerson CollegeA− for WPIX | Oct 3–Oct 5 | 900 LV | Hochul +12.7 | Hochul +13.1 | 0.97 |
| co/efficientB · REP sponsor for Coalition to Protect Nassau Taxpayers | Sep 23–Sep 25 | 1,046 LV | Hochul +7.0 | Hochul +10.7 | 0.23 |
| Quinnipiac UniversityB+ | Sep 17–Sep 20 | 1,026 LV | Hochul +19.0 | Hochul +17.2 | 0.59 |
| Concord Public Opinion PartnersC+ · DEM sponsor for Education Reform Now Advocacy | Aug 19–Aug 21 | 505 LV | Hochul +16.0 | Hochul +15.0 | 0.07 |
| Siena UniversityA | Aug 3–Aug 6 | 811 LV | Hochul +10.0 | Hochul +10.0 | 0.12 |
| Red Oak Strategic · REP sponsor for Strong and Safe | Jul 7–Jul 12 | 2,000 RV | Hochul +4.0 | Hochul +7.2 | 0.04 |
| co/efficientB for Coalition to Protect Nassau Taxpayers | Jun 30–Jul 2 | 1,085 LV | Hochul +6.0 | Hochul +11.1 | 0.04 |
| Siena CollegeA | Jun 23–Jun 26 | 800 RV | Hochul +25.0 | Hochul +22.7 | 0.00 |
| Siena UniversityA | Jun 17–Jun 23 | 1,120 RV | Hochul +20.0 | Hochul +20.3 | 0.04 |
| Pollfinity | Jun 11–Jun 14 | 229 LV | Hochul +10.0 | Hochul +12.1 | 0.00 |
| Siena UniversityA | Apr 27–Apr 30 | 806 RV | Hochul +16.0 | Hochul +16.2 | 0.00 |
| Siena CollegeA | Mar 23–Mar 26 | 804 RV | Hochul +13.0 | Hochul +11.0 | 0.00 |
| Echelon Insights/Tusk StrategiesA− | Mar 24–Mar 26 | 500 RV | Hochul +15.0 | Hochul +16.5 | 0.00 |
| Siena CollegeA | Feb 23–Feb 26 | 805 RV | Hochul +20.0 | Hochul +18.2 | 0.00 |
| Marist CollegeA | Feb 16–Feb 19 | 1,442 RV | Hochul +17.0 | Hochul +17.2 | 0.00 |
| MAD Global StrategyB+ · DEM sponsor for Natural Allies for a Clean Energy Future | Feb 2–Feb 4 | 600 LV | Hochul +13.0 | Hochul +16.3 | 0.00 |
| Siena CollegeA | Jan 26–Jan 28 | 802 RV | Hochul +26.0 | Hochul +24.2 | 0.00 |
| John Zogby StrategiesA | Jan 6–Jan 8 | 844 LV | Hochul +14.0 | Hochul +17.2 | 0.00 |
| Siena CollegeA | Dec 8–Dec 12 | 801 RV | Hochul +25.0 | Hochul +23.9 | 0.00 |
| Siena CollegeA | Dec 8–Dec 12 | 801 RV | Hochul +25.0 | Hochul +23.9 | 0.00 |
| J.L. PartnersC+ · REP sponsor | Nov 9–Nov 10 | 500 LV | Hochul +11.0 | Hochul +12.9 | 0.00 |
| Grayhouse · REP sponsor | Apr 22–Apr 24 | 600 RV | Hochul +8.0 | Hochul +11.6 | 0.00 |
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Hochul 100, Blakeman 0.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 91% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Hochul +14.7 | ±3.4 sampling range; effective 4 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+8.0 | roughly 16 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Blakeman +3.8 | In 2022 they ran 7.6 pts more Republican than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Hochul +4.0 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Hochul +21.8 | ±14 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | Hochul +18.9 | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Hochul +15.3 | ±4.0 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.
Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.
2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.
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