Governor · open seat · All New Mexico races

New Mexico

Solid D

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Deb Haaland

Democratic

>99 in 100

chance of winning, out of 100

Gregg Hull

Republican

<1 in 100

Deb Haaland wins in >99 of 100 simulations.

The polling average has Deb Haaland +17.4 across 1 poll; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Deb Haaland +15.6. Polls get 86% of the weight 15 days out.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Haaland +17.1; 80 in 100 fall between Haaland +10.7 and Haaland +23.6.

The candidates

Deb Haaland

Democratic · American politician (born 1960)

Debra Anne Haaland is an American politician who served as the 54th United States secretary of the interior from 2021 to 2025. A member of the Democratic Party, she served as the U.S. Wikipedia

Official website ↗

Gregg Hull

Republican · American politician and businessman

Greggory D. Hull is an American politician and businessman who served as mayor of Rio Rancho, New Mexico from 2014 to April 2026, the longest-serving mayor in Rio Rancho history. Hull is the Republican nominee for the Governor of New Mexico in the 2026 election. Wikipedia

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

Polls

The polling average stands at Haaland +17.4 across 1 poll testing Deb Haaland against Gregg Hull.

Haaland +1.2 since Aug 7, 2026

Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Result	Adjusted	Weight
BSP Research	Jul 22–Aug 7	800 RV	Haaland +17.0	Haaland +17.4	0.36

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

Haaland +16 over the past 3 months

Out of 100. Today: Haaland >99, Hull <1.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 86% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)	Haaland +17.4	±7.8 sampling range; effective 1 polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines)	D+4.0	roughly 8 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment	D+9.6	generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbency	none	open seat or incumbent not on ballot
Fundamentals estimate	Haaland +15.6	±14 typical error
Expert ratings (average)	Haaland +16.4	used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
Forecast	Haaland +17.1	±5.1 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

Polls only: Deb Haaland >99 in 100 (Solid D)
Polls + fundamentals: Deb Haaland >99 in 100 (Solid D)
Polls + fundamentals + experts: Deb Haaland >99 in 100 (Solid D)

Published ratings

Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.

Cook: Solid DDDHQ: Likely DFox News: Solid DInside Elections: Likely DRCP: Lean DSabato: Safe DSilver Bulletin: Solid D

County map

Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.

Color shows the 2024 presidential margin in each county. Hover or tap a county for its numbers.

2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.

Rules and notes

Term-limited

Governor races, closest first · this is #29 of 36