Maura Healey wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Maura Healey +36.0.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Healey +36.0; 80 in 100 fall between Healey +18.4 and Healey +53.7.
Maura Tracy Healey is an American lawyer and politician serving as the 73rd governor of Massachusetts since 2023. A member of the Democratic Party, she served as Massachusetts Attorney General from 2015 to 2023 and was elected governor in 2022. Wikipedia
Official website ↗Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.
The polling average stands at — across 0 polls testing Maura Healey against Mike Minogue.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk UniversityA− for The Boston Globe | Jun 8–Jun 12 | 500 RV | Healey +25.0 | Healey +25.5 | 0.00 |
| University of New HampshireB+ | Apr 16–Apr 20 | 599 LV | Healey +20.0 | Healey +21.6 | 0.00 |
| University of New HampshireB+ | Feb 12–Feb 16 | 620 LV | Healey +29.0 | Healey +31.0 | 0.00 |
| UMass Amherst/YouGovA− | Oct 21–Oct 29 | 800 A | Healey +25.0 | Healey +27.2 | 0.00 |
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Healey >99, Minogue <1.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+14.0 | roughly 28 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Healey +1.4 | In 2022 they ran 2.8 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Healey +4.0 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Healey +36.0 | ±14 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | Healey +22.0 | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Healey +36.0 | ±13.6 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.
Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.
2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.
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