Gary Cordery
Republican
Governor · All Hawaii races
Hawaii
Solid D
Josh Green
Democratic · incumbent
99 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Gary Cordery
Republican
1 in 100
Josh Green wins in 99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Josh Green +33.1.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Green +33.2; 80 in 100 fall between Green +15.7 and Green +50.6.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Josh GreenIncumbent
Democratic · Governor of Hawaii since 2022
Joshua Booth Green is an American politician and physician serving since 2022 as the ninth governor of Hawaii. A member of the Democratic Party, he served from 2018 to 2022 as the 15th lieutenant governor of Hawaii. From 2004 to 2018, he was a member of the Hawaii State Legislature. Wikipedia
Official website ↗Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.
Polls
No public polls have tested Josh Green against Gary Cordery yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Green 99, Cordery 1.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+13.0 | roughly 26 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Green +4.0 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Green +33.1 | ±14 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | Green +22.0 | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Green +33.1 | ±13.6 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Josh Green 99 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals: Josh Green 99 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Josh Green 100 in 100 (Solid D)
Published ratings
Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.
Cook: Solid DDDHQ: Safe DFox News: Solid DInside Elections: Solid DRCP: Solid DSabato: Safe DSilver Bulletin: Solid D
County map
Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.
2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
Governor races, closest first · this is #27 of 36