Katie Hobbs wins in 99 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Katie Hobbs +8.6 across 10 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Katie Hobbs +14.4. Polls get 92% of the weight 15 days out.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Hobbs +9.0; 80 in 100 fall between Hobbs +4.2 and Hobbs +13.9.
Andrew Steven Biggs is an American politician and lawyer serving as the U.S. representative for Arizona's 5th congressional district since 2017. A member of the Republican Party, Biggs served as a member of the Arizona House of Representatives from 2003 to 2011 and a member of the Arizona Senate from 2011 to 2017. Wikipedia
Official website ↗Kathleen Marie Hobbs is an American politician and social worker serving since 2023 as the 24th governor of Arizona. A member of the Democratic Party, she served from 2019 to 2023 as Arizona's Secretary of State and from 2011 to 2019 as a member of the Arizona Legislature. Wikipedia
Official website ↗Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.
The polling average stands at Hobbs +8.6 across 10 polls testing Katie Hobbs against Andy Biggs.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equis Research | Oct 1–Oct 9 | 1,214 RV | Hobbs +6.0 | Hobbs +6.1 | 0.97 |
| BSP Research for Arizona State University Center for Latina/os and American Politics Research, Arizona State University Hispanic Research Center | Aug 18–Sep 4 | — LV | Hobbs +13.0 | Hobbs +13.4 | 0.43 |
| NextGen Polling | Aug 17–Aug 19 | 1,627 RV | Hobbs +1.0 | Hobbs +3.5 | 0.64 |
| HighGroundB+ | Aug 15–Aug 18 | 400 LV | Hobbs +16.0 | Hobbs +15.7 | 0.42 |
| Quantus Insights | Aug 14–Aug 17 | 780 LV | Hobbs +6.0 | Hobbs +8.1 | 0.43 |
| Kreate Strategies · REP sponsor for American Encore | Aug 13–Aug 16 | 900 LV | Hobbs +5.0 | Hobbs +6.8 | 0.23 |
| Stealth Analytics | Aug 11–Aug 13 | 530 LV | Hobbs +5.0 | Hobbs +6.6 | 0.34 |
| Noble Predictive InsightsB− | Aug 10–Aug 13 | 923 LV | Hobbs +13.0 | Hobbs +14.0 | 0.48 |
| The Tarrance GroupB+ for Democracy Defense Foundation | Jul 27–Jul 30 | 600 LV | Hobbs +4.0 | Hobbs +6.0 | 0.39 |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact ResearchB for AARP | Jul 26–Jul 28 | 913 LV | Hobbs +8.0 | Hobbs +9.2 | 0.45 |
| Noble Predictive InsightsB− | May 5–May 7 | 996 RV | Hobbs +4.0 | Hobbs +5.2 | 0.00 |
| Noble Predictive InsightsB− | Feb 23–Feb 26 | 1,023 RV | Hobbs +5.0 | Hobbs +7.0 | 0.00 |
| Center for Excellence in Polling | Jan 22–Jan 24 | 519 LV | Hobbs +9.0 | Hobbs +10.9 | 0.00 |
| NextGen P | Dec 15–Dec 17 | 2,725 LV | Hobbs +19.0 | Hobbs +21.7 | 0.00 |
| Emerson CollegeA− | Nov 8–Nov 10 | 850 RV | Hobbs +0.7 | Hobbs +4.0 | 0.00 |
| Noble Predictive InsightsB− | Aug 11–Aug 18 | 948 RV | Hobbs +2.0 | Hobbs +5.4 | 0.00 |
| Noble Predictive InsightsB− | May 12–May 16 | 1,026 RV | Hobbs +2.0 | Hobbs +5.8 | 0.00 |
| Pulse Decision Science · REP sponsor for Club for Growth | Apr 6–Apr 9 | 501 LV | Hobbs +4.0 | Hobbs +8.2 | 0.00 |
| Noble Predictive InsightsB− | Feb 11–Feb 13 | 1,006 RV | Hobbs +2.0 | Hobbs +7.5 | 0.00 |
| Kreate Strategies · REP sponsor for American Encore | Feb 5–Feb 7 | 924 LV | Biggs +1.0 | Hobbs +5.2 | 0.00 |
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Hobbs 99, Biggs 1.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 92% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Hobbs +8.6 | ±2.6 sampling range; effective 8.6 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+2.0 | roughly 4 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Hobbs +3.8 | In 2022 they ran 7.6 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Hobbs +4.0 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Hobbs +14.4 | ±14 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | Hobbs +5.5 | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Hobbs +9.0 | ±3.9 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.
Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.
2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.
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