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Solid D

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Jocelyn Benson

Democratic

99 in 100

chance of winning, out of 100

John James

Republican

1 in 100

Jocelyn Benson wins in 99 of 100 simulations.

The polling average has Jocelyn Benson +8.9 across 16 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Jocelyn Benson +9.6. Polls get 92% of the weight 15 days out.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Benson +8.9; 80 in 100 fall between Benson +4.2 and Benson +13.7.

The candidates

Jocelyn Benson

Democratic · American politician and attorney (born 1977)

Jocelyn Michelle Benson is an American politician and attorney who has served as the 43rd secretary of state of Michigan since 2019. A member of the Democratic Party, she served as dean of Wayne State University Law School from 2012 to 2016. Wikipedia

Official website ↗

John James

Republican · American politician and businessman (born 1981)

John Edward James is an American politician, businessman, and former military officer serving as the U.S. representative for Michigan's 10th congressional district since 2023. A member of the Republican Party, he was the party's nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018 and 2020. Wikipedia

Official website ↗

Donna Brandenburg

U.S. Taxpayers

Douglas Campbell

Green

Anthony Hudson

Libertarian

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

Polls

The polling average stands at Benson +8.9 across 16 polls testing Jocelyn Benson against John James.

James +1.2 since May 23, 2026

Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Result	Adjusted	Weight
Z to A Research · DEM sponsor for Rust Belt Rising	Sep 28–Oct 1	483 LV	Benson +10.0	Benson +10.0	0.21
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchA for Fox News	Sep 24–Sep 28	1,028 LV	Benson +9.0	Benson +8.3	0.66
co/efficientB	Sep 21–Sep 23	843 LV	Benson +3.0	Benson +6.7	0.58
The New York Times/Siena UniversityA	Sep 15–Sep 22	605 LV	Benson +5.0	Benson +6.6	0.58
Cygnal/Beacon ResearchD for Michigan Enjoyer	Sep 18–Sep 21	600 LV	Benson +7.0	Benson +7.4	0.19
Suffolk UniversityA−	Sep 16–Sep 20	500 LV	Benson +17.0	Benson +16.5	0.46
The Washington Post/George Mason University School of Policy and GovernmentA+	Sep 10–Sep 14	803 LV	Benson +12.0	Benson +12.3	0.63
Emerson CollegeA− for Nexstar Media	Sep 12–Sep 14	1,000 LV	Benson +6.7	Benson +8.1	0.61
EPIC-MRAB+	Aug 22–Aug 28	600 LV	Benson +4.0	Benson +5.5	0.18
Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGovA+	Aug 10–Aug 20	779 LV	Benson +9.0	Benson +8.6	0.21
Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGovA+	Aug 10–Aug 20	913 RV	Benson +10.0	Benson +9.7	0.23
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact ResearchB for AARP	Aug 9–Aug 11	877 LV	Benson +5.0	Benson +5.9	0.19
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchA for Fox News	Aug 6–Aug 10	1,006 RV	Benson +5.0	Benson +5.2	0.18
EPIC-MRAB+ for MIRS	Jul 24–Jul 31	600 LV	Benson +9.0	Benson +10.7	0.09
Mitchell Research & CommunicationsB−	Jul 28–Jul 29	672 LV	Benson +2.0	Benson +3.7	0.11
Glengariff Group, Inc.B+ for Michigan Education Association, Business Leaders for Michigan	Jul 22–Jul 24	600 LV	Benson +5.0	Benson +8.6	0.11
TIPP InsightsA− for League of American Workers	May 20–May 23	1,163 LV	Benson +11.0	Benson +11.1	0.00
TIPP InsightsA− · REP sponsor for League of American Workers	May 20–May 23	1,456 RV	Benson +11.0	Benson +11.1	0.00

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

Benson +7 over the past 3 months

Out of 100. Today: Benson 99, James 1.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 92% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)	Benson +8.9	±2.0 sampling range; effective 11.4 polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines)	Even	roughly 0 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment	D+9.6	generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbency	none	open seat or incumbent not on ballot
Fundamentals estimate	Benson +9.6	±14 typical error
Expert ratings (average)	Benson +6.4	used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
Forecast	Benson +8.9	±3.8 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

Polls only: Jocelyn Benson 99 in 100 (Solid D)
Polls + fundamentals: Jocelyn Benson 99 in 100 (Solid D)
Polls + fundamentals + experts: Jocelyn Benson 99 in 100 (Solid D)

Published ratings

Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.

Cook: Lean DDDHQ: Likely DFox News: Lean DInside Elections: Tilt DRCP: Lean DSabato: Lean DSilver Bulletin: Likely D

County map

Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.

Color shows the 2024 presidential margin in each county. Hover or tap a county for its numbers.

2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.

Rules and notes

Term-limited

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