Governor · open seat · All Minnesota races

Minnesota

Solid D

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Amy Klobuchar

DFL

99 in 100

chance of winning, out of 100

Lisa Demuth

Republican

1 in 100

Amy Klobuchar wins in 99 of 100 simulations.

The polling average has Amy Klobuchar +8.8 across 4 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Amy Klobuchar +14.1. Polls get 91% of the weight 15 days out.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Klobuchar +9.2; 80 in 100 fall between Klobuchar +4.2 and Klobuchar +14.4.

The candidates

Lisa Demuth

Republican · American politician (born 1967)

Lisa Demuth is an American politician serving since 2025 as the speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives. A member of the Republican Party of Minnesota, Demuth represents District 13A in central Minnesota, which includes the cities of St. Joseph and Cold Spring and parts of Stearns County. Wikipedia

Amy Klobuchar

DFL · American politician and lawyer (born 1960)

Amy Jean Klobuchar is an American politician and lawyer serving as the senior United States senator from Minnesota, a seat she has held since 2007. Wikipedia

Official website ↗

Steven Young

Green

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

Polls

The polling average stands at Klobuchar +8.8 across 4 polls testing Amy Klobuchar against Lisa Demuth.

Demuth +5.8 over the past 6 months

Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Result	Adjusted	Weight
SurveyUSAA− for KSTP-TV (St. Paul), KAAL-TV (Austin), WDIO-DT (Duluth)	Oct 8–Oct 12	718 LV	Klobuchar +7.0	Klobuchar +6.8	0.64
Mason-DixonA− for StarTribune, KARE	Oct 5–Oct 7	800 LV	Klobuchar +9.0	Klobuchar +8.6	1.07
SurveyUSAA− for KSTP-TV (St. Paul), KAAL-TV (Austin), WDIO-DT (Duluth)	Sep 9–Sep 14	654 LV	Klobuchar +7.0	Klobuchar +7.8	0.36
SurveyUSAA− for KSTP-TV (St. Paul), KAAL-TV (Austin), WDIO-DT (Duluth)	Aug 13–Aug 17	661 LV	Klobuchar +16.0	Klobuchar +16.9	0.22
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.A− for The Star Tribune, KARE 11, Hubbard School of Journalism and Mass Communication	Jun 8–Jun 10	800 LV	Klobuchar +8.0	Klobuchar +9.5	0.00
Emerson CollegeA−	Feb 6–Feb 8	1,000 LV	Klobuchar +13.4	Klobuchar +15.8	0.00
SurveyUSAA− for KSTP-TV	Jan 27–Jan 30	575 RV	Klobuchar +15.0	Klobuchar +16.8	0.00

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

Klobuchar +9 over the past 3 months

Out of 100. Today: Klobuchar 99, Demuth 1.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 91% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)	Klobuchar +8.8	±3.9 sampling range; effective 3 polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines)	D+3.0	roughly 6 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment	D+9.6	generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbency	none	open seat or incumbent not on ballot
Fundamentals estimate	Klobuchar +14.1	±14 typical error
Expert ratings (average)	Klobuchar +15.7	used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
Forecast	Klobuchar +9.3	±4.1 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

Polls only: Amy Klobuchar 98 in 100 (Solid D)
Polls + fundamentals: Amy Klobuchar 99 in 100 (Solid D)
Polls + fundamentals + experts: Amy Klobuchar >99 in 100 (Solid D)

Published ratings

Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.

Cook: Solid DDDHQ: Likely DFox News: Likely DInside Elections: Likely DRCP: Likely DSabato: Safe DSilver Bulletin: Solid D

County map

Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.

Color shows the 2024 presidential margin in each county. Hover or tap a county for its numbers.

2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.

Rules and notes

Incumbent retiring

Governor races, closest first · this is #24 of 36