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Tina Kotek

Democratic · incumbent

76 in 100

chance of winning, out of 100

Christine Drazan

Republican

24 in 100

Tina Kotek wins in 76 of 100 simulations.

The polling average has Tina Kotek +0.7 across 2 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Tina Kotek +22.9. Polls get 90% of the weight 15 days out.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Kotek +2.9; 80 in 100 fall between Drazan +2.5 and Kotek +8.3.

The candidates

Christine Drazan

Republican · American politician (born 1972)

Christine Renee Drazan is an American politician who has served in the Oregon State Senate since 2025 in the 26th district as a member of the Republican Party. Prior to her tenure in the state senate she was a member of the Oregon House of Representatives from the 39th and 51st districts. Wikipedia

Official website ↗

Tina KotekIncumbent

Democratic · Governor of Oregon since 2023

Christine "Tina" Kotek is an American politician who has served as the 39th governor of Oregon since 2023. A member of the Democratic Party, Kotek served from 2007 to 2022 as a member of the Oregon House of Representatives from the 44th district and from 2013 to 2022 as speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives. Wikipedia

Official website ↗

Brett Smith

Pacific Green

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

Polls

The polling average stands at Kotek +0.7 across 2 polls testing Tina Kotek against Christine Drazan.

Drazan +4.7 over the past 6 months

Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Result	Adjusted	Weight
DHM ResearchA− for The Oregonian/Oregon/Live	Sep 24–Oct 1	549 LV	Kotek +2.0	Kotek +2.1	0.55
DHM ResearchA− for Grow Oregon	Sep 11–Sep 11	600 LV	Drazan +2.0	Drazan +1.1	0.43
FM3 ResearchD · DEM sponsor for Charlie Health	Jan 26–Feb 4	1,065 LV	Kotek +5.0	Kotek +7.1	0.00

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

Drazan +18 over the past 3 months

Out of 100. Today: Kotek 76, Drazan 24.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 90% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)	Kotek +0.7	±4.9 sampling range; effective 2 polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines)	D+8.0	roughly 16 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment	D+9.6	generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbent’s track record	Drazan +2.7	In 2022 they ran 5.5 pts more Republican than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10)
Incumbency	Kotek +4.0	incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimate	Kotek +22.9	±14 typical error
Expert ratings (average)	Kotek +6.0	used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
Forecast	Kotek +3.0	±4.3 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

Polls only: Tina Kotek 56 in 100 (Toss-up)
Polls + fundamentals: Tina Kotek 76 in 100 (Likely D)
Polls + fundamentals + experts: Tina Kotek 86 in 100 (Likely D)

Published ratings

Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.

Cook: Lean DDDHQ: Likely DFox News: Lean DInside Elections: Lean DRCP: TossupSabato: Lean DSilver Bulletin: Likely D

County map

Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.

Color shows the 2024 presidential margin in each county. Hover or tap a county for its numbers.

2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.

Rules and notes

Incumbent renominated

Governor races, closest first · this is #6 of 36