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Lean RCould flip · R → D

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Republicans hold this seat today (current holder); Democrats have a real chance: 29 in 100 that it changes hands.

Gina Hinojosa

Democratic

29 in 100

chance of winning, out of 100

Greg Abbott

Republican · incumbent

71 in 100

Greg Abbott wins in 71 of 100 simulations.

The polling average has Greg Abbott +2.0 across 23 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Greg Abbott +2.4. Polls get 92% of the weight 15 days out.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Abbott +2.0; 80 in 100 fall between Abbott +6.8 and Hinojosa +2.7.

The candidates

Greg AbbottIncumbent

Republican · Governor of Texas since 2015

Gregory Wayne Abbott is an American politician, attorney, and jurist serving since 2015 as the 48th governor of Texas. A member of the Republican Party, he served from 2002 to 2015 as the 50th attorney general of Texas and from 1996 to 2001 as a justice of the Texas Supreme Court. Wikipedia

Official website ↗

Gina Hinojosa

Democratic · American lawyer and politician (born 1973)

Regina Inez Hinojosa is an American lawyer and politician who is the Democratic nominee for the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election. Hinojosa is a member of the Texas House of Representatives, representing the 49th district. Wikipedia

Official website ↗

Pat Dixon

Libertarian

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

Polls

The polling average stands at Abbott +2.0 across 23 polls testing Gina Hinojosa against Greg Abbott.

Hinojosa +4.4 over the past 6 months

Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Result	Adjusted	Weight
ActiVoteB	Sep 30–Oct 14	400 LV	Abbott +1.8	Abbott +2.2	0.56
ReconMR/Siena UniversityA	Oct 5–Oct 8	617 LV	Abbott +1.0	Abbott +2.6	0.49
The New York Times/Siena UniversityA	Sep 22–Sep 30	605 LV	Hinojosa +3.0	Hinojosa +4.6	0.45
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchA for Fox News	Sep 24–Sep 28	881 LV	Abbott +5.0	Abbott +5.7	0.55
Guidant Polling and Strategy for Public First Action	Sep 20–Sep 28	800 LV	Abbott +2.0	Abbott +2.0	0.43
University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGovA	Sep 18–Sep 28	850 LV	Abbott +4.0	Abbott +3.3	0.67
Slingshot StrategiesB− for Texas Public Opinion Research	Sep 19–Sep 22	1,007 LV	Abbott +4.0	Abbott +4.4	0.27
Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center	Sep 15–Sep 19	1,800 LV	Abbott +4.0	Abbott +2.5	0.37
Emerson CollegeA− for Nexstar Media	Sep 12–Sep 14	1,000 LV	Abbott +3.0	Abbott +1.6	0.37
ReconMR/Siena UniversityA	Sep 8–Sep 11	614 LV	Hinojosa +4.0	Hinojosa +3.3	0.22
YouGovA− for Univision	Aug 27–Sep 4	1,000 RV	Hinojosa +0.0	Hinojosa +1.5	0.34
Fabrizio Ward/Impact ResearchC+	Aug 30–Sep 1	895 LV	Abbott +3.0	Abbott +2.2	0.23
Slingshot StrategiesB− for Texas Public Opinion Research	Aug 21–Aug 24	1,000 LV	Abbott +7.0	Abbott +6.4	0.11
The Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin/YouGovA−	Aug 5–Aug 13	1,218 RV	Abbott +5.0	Abbott +3.6	0.20
Emerson CollegeA− for Nexstar Media	Aug 9–Aug 10	1,000 LV	Abbott +4.0	Abbott +2.6	0.13
Wedgewood Polls	Jul 30–Jul 31	800 LV	Abbott +6.0	Abbott +4.3	0.08
CygnalA+ · REP sponsor for Uknown Sponsor	Jul 29–Jul 31	800 LV	Abbott +3.0	Abbott +1.7	0.07
Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center	Jul 27–Jul 30	1,200 LV	Abbott +6.0	Abbott +3.7	0.07
ReconMR/Siena UniversityA for Texas A&M University Bush School of Government & Public Service	Jul 27–Jul 30	619 LV	Abbott +1.0	Abbott +1.3	0.06
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchA for Fox News	Jul 23–Jul 27	1,006 RV	Abbott +1.0	Abbott +0.5	0.09
Slingshot StrategiesB− for Texas Public Opinion Research	Jul 15–Jul 17	1,048 LV	Abbott +3.0	Abbott +1.9	0.04
The New York Times/Siena UniversityA	Jun 19–Jun 27	656 LV	Abbott +7.0	Abbott +4.0	0.03
SoCal Strategies · REP sponsor for Red Eagle Politics	Jun 21–Jun 21	800 LV	Abbott +10.7	Abbott +8.1	0.01
Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas/YouGovA−	Jun 5–Jun 12	1,200 RV	Abbott +7.0	Abbott +5.0	0.00
ReconMR/Siena UniversityA for Texas A&M University Bush School of Government & Public Service	Jun 1–Jun 4	807 LV	Abbott +5.0	Abbott +5.3	0.00
Slingshot StrategiesB− for Texas Public Opinion Research	May 27–May 28	1,670 LV	Abbott +5.0	Abbott +4.3	0.00
Public Policy PollingA− · DEM sponsor for Lone Star Rising PAC	May 22–May 23	643 LV	Abbott +4.0	Abbott +3.2	0.00
Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center	Apr 22–May 6	1,223 LV	Abbott +6.0	Abbott +3.7	0.00
The Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin/YouGovA−	Apr 10–Apr 20	1,200 RV	Abbott +6.0	Abbott +4.0	0.00
Slingshot StrategiesB− for Texas Public Opinion Research	Apr 17–Apr 20	1,018 LV	Abbott +5.0	Abbott +3.8	0.00
University of Texas at TylerC+	Feb 13–Feb 22	1,117 RV	Abbott +8.0	Abbott +6.1	0.00
University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion ResearchC+	Feb 13–Feb 22	1,117 RV	Abbott +8.0	Abbott +6.1	0.00
University of Houston/YouGovA−	Jan 20–Jan 31	1,502 LV	Abbott +7.0	Abbott +5.0	0.00
University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs/YouGovA−	Jan 20–Jan 31	1,502 LV	Abbott +7.0	Abbott +5.0	0.00
Emerson CollegeA− for Nexstar Media	Jan 10–Jan 12	1,165 RV	Abbott +7.9	Abbott +5.3	0.00
Emerson CollegeA− for Nexstar Media	Jan 10–Jan 12	1,165 RV	Abbott +7.9	Abbott +5.3	0.00

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

Hinojosa +10 over the past 3 months

Out of 100. Today: Hinojosa 29, Abbott 71.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 92% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)	Abbott +2.0	±1.8 sampling range; effective 14.4 polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines)	R+6.0	roughly 12 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment	D+9.6	generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbent’s track record	Hinojosa +0.9	In 2022 they ran 1.9 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10)
Incumbency	Abbott +4.0	incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimate	Abbott +2.4	±14 typical error
Expert ratings (average)	Abbott +4.3	used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
Forecast	Abbott +2.0	±3.8 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

Polls only: Gina Hinojosa 30 in 100 (Lean R)
Polls + fundamentals: Gina Hinojosa 29 in 100 (Lean R)
Polls + fundamentals + experts: Gina Hinojosa 22 in 100 (Likely R)

Published ratings

Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.

Cook: Lean RDDHQ: Lean RFox News: Lean RInside Elections: Lean RRCP: TossupSabato: Lean RSilver Bulletin: Lean R

County map

Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.

Color shows the 2024 presidential margin in each county. Hover or tap a county for its numbers.

2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.

Rules and notes

Incumbent renominated

Governor races, closest first · this is #5 of 36