Amanda Janoo
Democratic
Governor · All Vermont races
Vermont
Lean DLikely flip · R → D
Republicans hold this seat today (current holder); Democrats are favored: 70 in 100 that it changes hands.
Amanda Janoo
Democratic
70 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Phil Scott
Republican · incumbent
30 in 100
Amanda Janoo wins in 70 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Phil Scott +1.3 across 3 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Amanda Janoo +21.1. Polls get 80% of the weight 15 days out.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Janoo +3.2; 80 in 100 fall between Scott +4.6 and Janoo +11.0.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Phil ScottIncumbent
Republican · Governor of Vermont since 2017
Philip Brian Scott is an American politician, stock car racer, and businessman who has served since 2017 as the 82nd governor of Vermont. Wikipedia
Official website ↗June Goodband
Green Mountain
Brian Judd
Independent
Dean Roy
Freedom and Unity
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.
Polls
The polling average stands at Scott +1.3 across 3 polls testing Amanda Janoo against Phil Scott.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New HampshireB+ | Sep 17–Sep 21 | 835 LV | Janoo +6.0 | Janoo +6.3 | 0.51 |
| University of New HampshireB+ | Jul 15–Jul 20 | 954 LV | Scott +11.0 | Scott +9.7 | 0.26 |
| University of New HampshireB+ | Jun 18–Jun 23 | 511 LV | Scott +15.0 | Scott +13.6 | 0.14 |
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Janoo 71, Scott 30.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 80% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Scott +1.3 | ±11.1 sampling range; effective 2.4 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+17.0 | roughly 34 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Scott +10.0 | In 2022 they ran 75.2 pts more Republican than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Scott +4.0 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Janoo +21.1 | ±14 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | Scott +9.3 | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Janoo +3.2 | ±6.1 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Amanda Janoo 43 in 100 (Toss-up)
- Polls + fundamentals: Amanda Janoo 70 in 100 (Lean D)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Amanda Janoo 28 in 100 (Lean R)
Published ratings
Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.
Cook: Likely RDDHQ: Likely RFox News: Likely RInside Elections: Likely RRCP: Lean RSabato: Likely RSilver Bulletin: Lean R
County map
Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.
2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
Governor races, closest first · this is #4 of 36