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Nebraska

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Republicans hold this seat today (current holder); Democrats have a real chance: 32 in 100 that it changes hands.

Lynne Walz

Democratic

32 in 100

chance of winning, out of 100

Jim Pillen

Republican · incumbent

68 in 100

Jim Pillen wins in 68 of 100 simulations.

The polling average has Jim Pillen +1.5 across 1 poll; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Jim Pillen +7.9. Polls get 86% of the weight 15 days out.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Pillen +2.4; 80 in 100 fall between Pillen +8.9 and Walz +4.1.

The candidates

Jim PillenIncumbent

Republican · Governor of Nebraska since 2023

James Douglas Pillen is an American politician, veterinarian, and livestock producer serving as the 41st and current governor of Nebraska since 2023. A member of the Republican Party, Pillen served on the University of Nebraska Board of Regents from 2013 to 2023. Wikipedia

Lynne Walz

Democratic · American politician (born 1963)

Lynne Marie Walz is an American politician, former teacher, and realtor, who served as a Nebraska state senator in the Nebraska Legislature from 2017 to 2025. A member of the Democratic Party, she represented District 15, which includes Fremont and surrounding areas. Wikipedia

Rick Beard

Legal Marijuana Now

Brett Lindstrom

America First

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

Polls

The polling average stands at Pillen +1.5 across 1 poll testing Lynne Walz against Jim Pillen.

Walz +3.3 over the past 6 months

Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Result	Adjusted	Weight
National Public Affairs	Oct 2–Oct 5	800 LV	Pillen +4.0	Pillen +1.5	0.46
Public Policy PollingA− · DEM sponsor	Apr 6–Apr 7	670 RV	Pillen +5.0	Pillen +3.1	0.00

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

Walz +13 over the past 3 months

Out of 100. Today: Walz 32, Pillen 68.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 86% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)	Pillen +1.5	±7.8 sampling range; effective 1 polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines)	R+10.0	roughly 20 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment	D+9.6	generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbent’s track record	Walz +1.5	In 2022 they ran 3.0 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10)
Incumbency	Pillen +4.0	incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimate	Pillen +7.9	±14 typical error
Expert ratings (average)	Pillen +14.1	used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
Forecast	Pillen +2.4	±5.1 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

Polls only: Lynne Walz 39 in 100 (Lean R)
Polls + fundamentals: Lynne Walz 32 in 100 (Lean R)
Polls + fundamentals + experts: Lynne Walz 4 in 100 (Solid R)

Published ratings

Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.

Cook: Likely RDDHQ: Likely RFox News: Solid RInside Elections: Likely RRCP: Solid RSabato: Likely RSilver Bulletin: Likely R

County map

Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.

Color shows the 2024 presidential margin in each county. Hover or tap a county for its numbers.

2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.

Rules and notes

Incumbent renominated

Governor races, closest first · this is #3 of 36