Republicans hold this seat today (current holder); Democrats are favored: 65 in 100 that it changes hands.
Aaron Ford wins in 65 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Aaron Ford +1.2 across 2 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Aaron Ford +5.8. Polls get 90% of the weight 15 days out.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Ford +1.7; 80 in 100 fall between Lombardo +3.8 and Ford +7.2.
Aaron Darnell Ford is an American lawyer and politician currently serving as the 34th attorney general of Nevada since 2019. A member of the Democratic Party, he previously served as a member of the Nevada Senate representing the 11th district from 2013 to 2018. He served as Nevada Senate majority and minority leader. Wikipedia
Official website ↗Joseph Michael Lombardo is an American politician and former law enforcement officer serving since 2023 as the 31st governor of Nevada. From 2015 to 2023, he was the 17th sheriff of Clark County, capping a 34-year career in law enforcement. Lombardo is a member of the Republican Party. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.
The polling average stands at Ford +1.2 across 2 polls testing Aaron Ford against Joe Lombardo.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Predictive InsightsB− | Sep 22–Sep 26 | 800 RV | Lombardo +1.0 | Lombardo +0.9 | 0.66 |
| Emerson CollegeA− for KLAS-TV | Sep 5–Sep 8 | 680 LV | Ford +2.2 | Ford +3.5 | 0.64 |
| Noble Predictive InsightsB− | Mar 10–Mar 13 | 845 RV | Lombardo +1.0 | Ford +1.1 | 0.00 |
| Hart Research AssociatesB+ · DEM sponsor for Majority Institute | Feb 11–Feb 17 | 800 LV | Lombardo +3.0 | Lombardo +0.9 | 0.00 |
| Emerson CollegeA− | Nov 16–Nov 18 | 800 RV | Ford +0.0 | Ford +2.6 | 0.00 |
| Noble Predictive InsightsB− | Oct 7–Oct 13 | 766 RV | Lombardo +3.0 | Ford +0.3 | 0.00 |
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Ford 65, Lombardo 35.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 90% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Ford +1.2 | ±4.9 sampling range; effective 2 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+1.0 | roughly 2 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Ford +1.6 | In 2022 they ran 3.3 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Lombardo +4.0 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Ford +5.8 | ±14 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | Lombardo +0.4 | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Ford +1.7 | ±4.3 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.
Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.
2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.
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