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Georgia

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Republicans hold this seat today (current holder); Democrats are favored: 54 in 100 that it changes hands.

Keisha Lance Bottoms

Democratic

54 in 100

chance of winning, out of 100

Rick Jackson

Republican

46 in 100

Keisha Lance Bottoms wins in 54 of 100 simulations.

The polling average has Rick Jackson +0.3 across 9 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Keisha Lance Bottoms +8.1. Polls get 92% of the weight 15 days out.

Chance no one clears 50% and the race goes to a December runoff: 40 in 100 (rough estimate from the projected margin).

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Bottoms +0.3; 80 in 100 fall between Jackson +4.5 and Bottoms +5.2.

The candidates

Keisha Lance Bottoms

Democratic · American attorney and politician (born 1970)

Keisha Lance Bottoms is an American attorney and politician who served as the 60th mayor of Atlanta, Georgia, from 2018 to 2022. Previously, she served as a member of the Atlanta City Council from 2010 to 2018, representing part of Southwest Atlanta. She is a member of the Democratic Party. Wikipedia

Official website ↗

Rick Jackson

Republican · American businessman and politician (born 1954)

Richard Lee Jackson is an American business executive and politician. He is the founder and CEO of Jackson Healthcare, a healthcare staffing and services company based in Alpharetta, Georgia. Wikipedia

Official website ↗

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

Polls

The polling average stands at Jackson +0.3 across 9 polls testing Keisha Lance Bottoms against Rick Jackson.

Jackson +7.5 over the past 6 months

Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Result	Adjusted	Weight
InsiderAdvantageB−	Oct 12–Oct 13	800 LV	Jackson +2.0	Jackson +1.1	0.51
Wedgewood Polls	Oct 2–Oct 3	600 LV	Jackson +2.0	Jackson +1.6	0.52
Big Data Poll for Public Polling Project	Sep 21–Sep 23	678 LV	Jackson +1.0	Jackson +1.6	0.43
InsiderAdvantageB−	Sep 22–Sep 23	1,200 LV	Jackson +2.0	Jackson +1.1	0.37
InsiderAdvantageB− for James Magazine	Aug 16–Aug 17	800 LV	Jackson +0.1	Bottoms +1.9	0.12
Quantus Insights for Natural Gas Association of Georgia	Jul 29–Aug 1	815 LV	Bottoms +1.5	Bottoms +3.9	0.12
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact ResearchB for AARP	Jul 13–Jul 16	1,060 LV	Bottoms +2.0	Bottoms +3.5	0.11
WickB−	Jun 27–Jun 30	1,175 LV	Jackson +0.5	Bottoms +2.9	0.07
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchA for Fox News	Jun 23–Jun 27	1,002 RV	Bottoms +5.0	Bottoms +5.7	0.08
Concord Public Opinion PartnersC+ · DEM sponsor for Education Reform Now Advocacy	May 30–Jun 2	510 LV	Bottoms +15.0	Bottoms +14.1	0.00
Echelon InsightsA− for NetChoice	Apr 3–Apr 9	407 LV	Bottoms +6.0	Bottoms +8.9	0.00
Echelon InsightsA−	Apr 3–Apr 9	407 LV	Bottoms +6.0	Bottoms +8.9	0.00

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

Jackson +19 over the past 3 months

Out of 100. Today: Bottoms 54, Jackson 46.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 92% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)	Jackson +0.3	±2.8 sampling range; effective 6 polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines)	R+1.0	roughly 2 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment	D+9.6	generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbency	none	open seat or incumbent not on ballot
Fundamentals estimate	Bottoms +8.1	±14 typical error
Expert ratings (average)	Bottoms +0.7	used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
Forecast	Bottoms +0.4	±3.9 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

Polls only: Keisha Lance Bottoms 46 in 100 (Toss-up)
Polls + fundamentals: Keisha Lance Bottoms 54 in 100 (Toss-up)
Polls + fundamentals + experts: Keisha Lance Bottoms 55 in 100 (Toss-up)

Published ratings

Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.

Cook: TossupDDHQ: TossupFox News: TossupInside Elections: TossupRCP: TossupSabato: TossupSilver Bulletin: Lean D (flip)

County map

Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.

Color shows the 2024 presidential margin in each county. Hover or tap a county for its numbers.

2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.

Rules and notes

Georgia requires a majority: if no candidate tops 50%, the top two meet in a runoff.
Term-limited

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