Governor · open seat · All Florida races

Florida

Likely R

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David Jolly

Democratic

23 in 100

chance of winning, out of 100

Byron Donalds

Republican

77 in 100

Byron Donalds wins in 77 of 100 simulations.

The polling average has Byron Donalds +3.3 across 11 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to David Jolly +2.1. Polls get 92% of the weight 15 days out.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Donalds +2.9; 80 in 100 fall between Donalds +8.0 and Jolly +2.1.

The candidates

Byron Donalds

Republican · American politician (born 1978)

Byron Lowell Donalds is an American politician serving as the U.S. representative for Florida's 19th congressional district since 2021. His congressional district includes much of Southwest Florida. From 2016 to 2020, he served in the Florida House of Representatives. Wikipedia

Official website ↗

David Jolly

Democratic · American attorney and politician (born 1972)

David Wilson Jolly is an American lawyer and politician who is the Democratic nominee for the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election. Jolly served as the U.S. representative for Florida's 13th congressional district from 2014 to 2017 as a Republican. Wikipedia

Official website ↗

Dean Abrams

Independent

Charles Burkett

Independent

Jeffrey Datto

Independent

Moe Dimanche

Independent

Scott Jewett

Libertarian

Frank Russo

Independent

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

Polls

The polling average stands at Donalds +3.4 across 11 polls testing David Jolly against Byron Donalds.

Donalds +0.3 over the past 6 months

Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Result	Adjusted	Weight
Change ResearchB− · DEM sponsor for Freedom Project USA	Oct 8–Oct 10	920 LV	Jolly +0.0	Donalds +1.9	0.19
MDW Communications for EDGE Communications	Oct 4–Oct 10	2,351 LV	Donalds +2.0	Donalds +2.7	0.87
St. Pete PollsB− for Florida Politics	Oct 5–Oct 7	836 LV	Jolly +0.0	Donalds +1.9	0.40
Targoz Market ResearchC+ for The James Madison Institute	Sep 28–Oct 4	857 LV	Donalds +10.0	Donalds +7.1	0.21
Targoz Market ResearchC+	Sep 28–Oct 4	1,200 RV	Donalds +9.0	Donalds +6.1	0.24
Change ResearchB− for Freedom Project USA	Sep 25–Sep 27	1,063 LV	Jolly +2.0	Jolly +0.1	0.22
Stetson University Center for Public Opinion ResearchB+	Sep 14–Sep 21	830 LV	Donalds +12.0	Donalds +9.4	0.25
St. Pete PollsB− for Florida Politics	Sep 15–Sep 17	913 LV	Donalds +0.1	Donalds +1.4	0.16
Change ResearchB− for Freedom Project USA	Sep 7–Sep 9	1,107 LV	Jolly +3.0	Jolly +2.0	0.09
Targoz Market ResearchC+ for The James Madison Institute	Jul 20–Jul 26	1,026 RV	Donalds +7.0	Donalds +2.8	0.01
University of North FloridaA−	Jul 8–Jul 17	848 LV	Donalds +5.0	Donalds +2.3	0.01
Change ResearchB− for Freedom Project USA	May 13–May 16	1,593 LV	Jolly +4.0	Jolly +3.2	0.00
Cherry CommunicationsD · REP sponsor for Florida Chamber of Commerce	May 1–May 9	604 LV	Donalds +8.0	Donalds +5.7	0.00
The Public Sentiment Institute	Apr 27–Apr 27	687 LV	Jolly +0.0	Donalds +0.1	0.00
Echelon InsightsA− for NetChoice	Apr 3–Apr 9	406 LV	Donalds +6.0	Donalds +3.1	0.00
MDW Communications for Edge Communications	Mar 27–Apr 3	1,834 LV	Donalds +0.7	Jolly +0.4	0.00
Emerson CollegeA−	Mar 29–Mar 31	1,125 LV	Donalds +4.8	Donalds +2.5	0.00
University of North FloridaA−	Feb 21–Mar 2	786 LV	Donalds +6.0	Donalds +2.9	0.00
Public Sentiment Institute	Feb 20–Feb 20	200 RV	Jolly +6.5	Jolly +7.0	0.00
Targoz Market ResearchC+	Feb 13–Feb 16	1,200 RV	Donalds +2.0	Jolly +2.9	0.00
University of North FloridaA− · DEM sponsor for Florida Watch	Oct 15–Oct 25	728 LV	Donalds +11.0	Donalds +6.9	0.00
Targoz Market ResearchC+ for James Madison Institute	Sep 16–Sep 18	1,118 RV	Donalds +4.0	Jolly +1.7	0.00
McLaughlin & AssociatesD · REP sponsor for Associated Industries of Florida	Aug 25–Aug 27	800 LV	Donalds +8.0	Donalds +1.6	0.00
Victory InsightsB	Jun 7–Jun 10	600 LV	Donalds +5.3	Donalds +1.2	0.00

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

Donalds +16 over the past 3 months

Out of 100. Today: Jolly 23, Donalds 77.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 92% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)	Donalds +3.4	±2.8 sampling range; effective 5.8 polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines)	R+5.0	roughly 10 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment	D+9.6	generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbency	none	open seat or incumbent not on ballot
Fundamentals estimate	Jolly +2.1	±14 typical error
Expert ratings (average)	Donalds +5.1	used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
Forecast	Donalds +2.9	±3.9 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

Polls only: David Jolly 20 in 100 (Likely R)
Polls + fundamentals: David Jolly 23 in 100 (Likely R)
Polls + fundamentals + experts: David Jolly 17 in 100 (Likely R)

Published ratings

Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.

Cook: Lean RDDHQ: Lean RFox News: Likely RInside Elections: Lean RRCP: TossupSabato: Lean RSilver Bulletin: Lean R

County map

Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.

Color shows the 2024 presidential margin in each county. Hover or tap a county for its numbers.

2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.

Rules and notes

Term-limited

Governor races, closest first · this is #7 of 36

Florida

Where the result could land ?

The candidates

Polls ?

Chance of winning over time

What’s driving the forecast

All three versions

Published ratings

County map

Rules and notes

Where the result could land

Polls