Sarah Huckabee Sanders wins in 84 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Sarah Huckabee Sanders +13.3.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Sanders +13.3; 80 in 100 fall between Sanders +30.8 and Love +4.2.
The candidates
FL
Fredrick Love
Democratic · American politician
Fredrick J. Love is an American politician representing the 15th district in the Arkansas Senate since 2023. Love previously served in the Arkansas House of Representatives from 2011 to 2023. He is the Democratic nominee in the 2026 Arkansas gubernatorial election. Wikipedia
SH
Sarah Huckabee SandersIncumbent
Republican · Governor of Arkansas since 2023
Sarah Elizabeth Huckabee Sanders is an American politician serving as the 47th governor of Arkansas since 2023. Sanders is the daughter of Ambassador Mike Huckabee, who served from 1996 to 2007 as Arkansas's 44th governor. Wikipedia
CS
Colt Shelby
Libertarian
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.
Polls
No public polls have tested Fredrick Love against Sarah Huckabee Sanders yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Love +4 over the past 3 months
Out of 100. Today: Love 16, Sanders 84.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
Polling average (after adjustments)
—
no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines)
R+15.0
roughly 30 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment
D+9.6
generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbent’s track record
Love +3.5
In 2022 they ran 7.1 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10)
Incumbency
Sanders +4.0
incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimate
Sanders +13.3
±14 typical error
Expert ratings (average)
Sanders +22.0
used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
Forecast
Sanders +13.3
±13.6 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day
All three versions
Polls only: Fredrick Love 16 in 100 (Likely R)
Polls + fundamentals: Fredrick Love 16 in 100 (Likely R)
Polls + fundamentals + experts: Fredrick Love <1 in 100 (Solid R)
Published ratings
Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.