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Democrats hold this seat today (current holder); Republicans are favored: 85 in 100 that it changes hands.

Cindy Holscher

Democratic

15 in 100

chance of winning, out of 100

Ty Masterson

Republican

85 in 100

Ty Masterson wins in 85 of 100 simulations.

The polling average has Ty Masterson +4.4 across 3 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Ty Masterson +2.4. Polls get 91% of the weight 15 days out.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Masterson +4.2; 80 in 100 fall between Masterson +9.4 and Holscher +1.0.

The candidates

Cindy Holscher

Democratic · American politician (born 1969)

Cynthia L. Holscher is an American politician who represented the 16th district in the Kansas House of Representatives from 2017 to 2020 and has represented the 8th district in the Kansas Senate since 2021. She is a member of the Democratic Party and is the Democratic nominee in the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election. Wikipedia

Official website ↗

Ty Masterson

Republican · American politician (born 1969)

Ty Masterson is an American politician who is the president of the Kansas Senate. A member of the Republican Party, he has represented the 16th district since 2009. From 2005 to 2008, he was a representative in the Kansas House of Representatives. He lives in Andover and served on the Andover City Council. Wikipedia

Official website ↗

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

Polls

The polling average stands at Masterson +4.4 across 3 polls testing Cindy Holscher against Ty Masterson.

Holscher +2.3 since Sep 16, 2026

Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Result	Adjusted	Weight
The New York Times/Siena UniversityA	Sep 22–Sep 30	605 LV	Masterson +5.0	Masterson +3.4	0.80
Wedgewood Polls	Sep 22–Sep 24	500 LV	Masterson +4.0	Masterson +3.6	0.43
Emerson CollegeA− for Nexstar Media	Sep 15–Sep 16	750 LV	Masterson +7.0	Masterson +6.0	0.67

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

Masterson +21 over the past 3 months

Out of 100. Today: Holscher 15, Masterson 85.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 91% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)	Masterson +4.4	±4.1 sampling range; effective 2.8 polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines)	R+8.0	roughly 16 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment	D+9.6	generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbency	none	open seat or incumbent not on ballot
Fundamentals estimate	Masterson +2.4	±14 typical error
Expert ratings (average)	Masterson +3.9	used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
Forecast	Masterson +4.2	±4.1 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

Polls only: Cindy Holscher 15 in 100 (Likely R)
Polls + fundamentals: Cindy Holscher 15 in 100 (Likely R)
Polls + fundamentals + experts: Cindy Holscher 11 in 100 (Likely R)

Published ratings

Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.

Cook: Lean R (flip)DDHQ: Lean R (flip)Fox News: Lean R (flip)Inside Elections: Tilt R (flip)RCP: TossupSabato: Lean R (flip)Silver Bulletin: Lean R (flip)

County map

Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.

Color shows the 2024 presidential margin in each county. Hover or tap a county for its numbers.

2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.

Rules and notes

Term-limited

Governor races, closest first · this is #9 of 36