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Ohio

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Republicans hold this seat today (current holder); Democrats are favored: 87 in 100 that it changes hands.

Amy Acton

Democratic

87 in 100

chance of winning, out of 100

Vivek Ramaswamy

Republican

13 in 100

Amy Acton wins in 87 of 100 simulations.

The polling average has Amy Acton +4.4 across 10 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Amy Acton +2.1. Polls get 92% of the weight 15 days out.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Acton +4.2; 80 in 100 fall between Ramaswamy +0.7 and Acton +9.1.

The candidates

Amy Acton

Democratic · American physician (born 1966)

Amy Leigh Acton is an American physician and researcher who is the Democratic nominee for governor of Ohio. Born in Youngstown, Ohio, Acton served as the director of the Ohio Department of Health, in which capacity she led Ohio's COVID-19 pandemic response from 2019 to 2020. Wikipedia

Official website ↗

Vivek Ramaswamy

Republican · American entrepreneur and politician (born 1985)

Vivek Ganapathy Ramaswamy is an American entrepreneur and politician. He founded Roivant Sciences, a biotechnological pharmaceutical company, in 2014 and was its chief executive officer until 2021. Wikipedia

Official website ↗

Donald Kissick

Libertarian

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

Polls

The polling average stands at Acton +4.4 across 10 polls testing Amy Acton against Vivek Ramaswamy.

Acton +4.7 over the past 6 months

Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Result	Adjusted	Weight
Bowling Green State University/YouGovA−	Sep 29–Oct 9	1,000 LV	Acton +6.0	Acton +5.1	0.82
co/efficientB · REP sponsor	Oct 5–Oct 6	925 LV	Ramaswamy +2.0	Acton +1.7	0.34
CNN/SSRSB−	Sep 29–Oct 5	760 LV	Acton +8.0	Acton +7.5	0.50
The New York Times/Siena UniversityA	Sep 22–Oct 1	616 LV	Acton +4.0	Acton +5.6	0.36
Marist University	Sep 24–Sep 27	1,298 RV	Acton +6.0	Acton +3.7	0.44
Suffolk UniversityA− for USA Today	Sep 23–Sep 27	500 LV	Acton +9.0	Acton +8.0	0.38
Big Data Poll for Public Polling Project	Sep 26–Sep 27	680 LV	Ramaswamy +1.1	Ramaswamy +1.8	0.33
Wedgewood Polls	Aug 11–Aug 13	800 LV	Acton +1.0	Acton +2.4	0.06
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchA for Fox News	Aug 6–Aug 10	1,008 RV	Ramaswamy +2.0	Ramaswamy +1.8	0.09
The New York Times/Siena UniversityA	Jun 15–Jun 28	601 LV	Acton +0.0	Acton +2.9	0.01
Fabrizio Ward/Impact ResearchC+ for AARP	Jun 14–Jun 16	800 LV	Acton +3.0	Acton +4.1	0.00
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchA for Fox News	May 28–Jun 1	1,015 RV	Acton +1.0	Acton +1.5	0.00
Bowling Green State University/YouGovA−	Apr 7–Apr 14	1,000 RV	Ramaswamy +1.0	Ramaswamy +0.1	0.00
Echelon InsightsA− for NetChoice	Apr 3–Apr 9	413 LV	Ramaswamy +5.0	Ramaswamy +2.1	0.00
Quantus Insights	Mar 13–Mar 14	809 LV	Acton +1.0	Acton +4.2	0.00
EMC ResearchC for Ohio Environmental Council	Feb 10–Feb 22	1,343 LV	Acton +10.0	Acton +11.2	0.00
Emerson CollegeA−	Dec 6–Dec 8	850 RV	Acton +0.7	Acton +3.7	0.00
Data TargetingB+ for T Roosevelt Action	Dec 3–Dec 8	603 LV	Ramaswamy +2.0	Acton +0.6	0.00
Bowling Green State University	Oct 2–Oct 14	800 RV	Ramaswamy +3.0	Acton +0.4	0.00
Hart Research AssociatesB+ for Ohio Federation of Teachers	Sep 19–Sep 22	800 LV	Acton +1.0	Acton +4.2	0.00
Emerson CollegeA−	Aug 18–Aug 19	1,000 RV	Ramaswamy +9.3	Ramaswamy +5.6	0.00

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

Acton +35 over the past 3 months

Out of 100. Today: Acton 87, Ramaswamy 13.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 92% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)	Acton +4.4	±2.6 sampling range; effective 6.8 polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines)	R+5.0	roughly 10 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment	D+9.6	generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbency	none	open seat or incumbent not on ballot
Fundamentals estimate	Acton +2.1	±14 typical error
Expert ratings (average)	Acton +0.7	used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
Forecast	Acton +4.2	±3.9 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

Polls only: Amy Acton 87 in 100 (Likely D)
Polls + fundamentals: Amy Acton 87 in 100 (Likely D)
Polls + fundamentals + experts: Amy Acton 83 in 100 (Likely D)

Published ratings

Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.

Cook: TossupDDHQ: TossupFox News: TossupInside Elections: TossupRCP: TossupSabato: TossupSilver Bulletin: Lean D (flip)

County map

Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.

Color shows the 2024 presidential margin in each county. Hover or tap a county for its numbers.

2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.

Rules and notes

Term-limited

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