Hannah Pingree wins in 88 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Hannah Pingree +15.6.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Pingree +15.7; 80 in 100 fall between Charles +1.8 and Pingree +33.1.
Robert Bruce Charles is an American lawyer. He served as the Assistant Secretary of State for International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs from 2003 to 2005. He is the Republican Party nominee for governor of Maine in the 2026 election. Wikipedia
Hannah M. Pingree is an American politician who served as the 99th speaker of the Maine House of Representatives from 2008 to 2010. A member of the Democratic Party, she was the second woman to hold the position in Maine history. Wikipedia
Official website ↗Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.
No public polls have tested Hannah Pingree against Robert B. Charles yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Pingree 88, Charles 12.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+4.0 | roughly 8 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | Pingree +15.6 | ±14 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | Pingree +17.3 | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Pingree +15.6 | ±13.6 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.
Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.
2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.
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