Governor · open seat · All Oklahoma races

Oklahoma

Likely R

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Cyndi Munson

Democratic

12 in 100

chance of winning, out of 100

Mike Mazzei

Republican

88 in 100

Mike Mazzei wins in 88 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Mike Mazzei +15.9.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Mazzei +15.8; 80 in 100 fall between Mazzei +33.3 and Munson +1.6.

The candidates

Mike Mazzei

Republican · American politician

Michael Paul Mazzei is an American politician from Oklahoma. A Republican, he served in the Oklahoma Senate from 2004 to 2016 and as Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt's Secretary of Budget from 2019 to 2020. Wikipedia

Cyndi Munson

Democratic · American politician (born 1985)

Cyndi Ann Munson is an American politician who has served as a member of the Oklahoma House of Representatives from the 85th district since 2015. A member of the Democratic Party, she has served as minority leader of the Oklahoma House of Representatives since 2022. Wikipedia

Official website ↗

Robert Brooks Sr.

Independent

Orlando Bush

Independent

Jerry Griffin

Independent

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

Polls

No public polls have tested Cyndi Munson against Mike Mazzei yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

Munson +3 over the past 3 months

Out of 100. Today: Munson 12, Mazzei 88.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)	—	no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines)	R+17.0	roughly 34 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment	D+9.6	generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbency	none	open seat or incumbent not on ballot
Fundamentals estimate	Mazzei +15.9	±14 typical error
Expert ratings (average)	Mazzei +17.3	used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
Forecast	Mazzei +15.9	±13.6 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

Polls only: Cyndi Munson 12 in 100 (Likely R)
Polls + fundamentals: Cyndi Munson 12 in 100 (Likely R)
Polls + fundamentals + experts: Cyndi Munson <1 in 100 (Solid R)

Published ratings

Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.

Cook: Likely RDDHQ: Safe RFox News: Solid RInside Elections: Likely RRCP: Solid RSabato: Safe RSilver Bulletin: Likely R

County map

Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.

Color shows the 2024 presidential margin in each county. Hover or tap a county for its numbers.

2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.

Rules and notes

Term-limited

Governor races, closest first · this is #12 of 36

Oklahoma

Where the result could land ?

The candidates

Polls ?

Chance of winning over time

What’s driving the forecast

All three versions

Published ratings

County map

Rules and notes

Where the result could land

Polls