Governor · open seat · All South Carolina races

South Carolina

Likely R

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Jermaine Johnson

Democratic

12 in 100

chance of winning, out of 100

Alan Wilson

Republican

88 in 100

Alan Wilson wins in 88 of 100 simulations.

The polling average has Alan Wilson +6.5 across 1 poll; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Alan Wilson +2.4. Polls get 86% of the weight 15 days out.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Wilson +5.9; 80 in 100 fall between Wilson +12.4 and Johnson +0.5.

The candidates

Jermaine Johnson

Democratic · American politician and basketball player (born 1985)

Jermaine Lafrance Johnson Sr. is an American politician, political advisor and former professional basketball player. A member of the Democratic Party, he is the member for South Carolina House of Representatives representing the 52nd district. Wikipedia

Alan Wilson

Republican · American politician (born 1973)

Alan McCrory Wilson is an American lawyer, politician, and military officer who has served as the 51st attorney general of South Carolina since 2011. He is a member of the Republican Party. Wikipedia

Official website ↗

Michael Addison

United Citizens

Walid Hakim

Green

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

Polls

The polling average stands at Wilson +6.5 across 1 poll testing Jermaine Johnson against Alan Wilson.

Johnson +1.6 since Jul 17, 2026

Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Result	Adjusted	Weight
Public Policy PollingA− · DEM sponsor for Annie Andrews	Jul 16–Jul 17	577 LV	Wilson +8.0	Wilson +6.5	0.20

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

Wilson +4 over the past 3 months

Out of 100. Today: Johnson 12, Wilson 88.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 86% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)	Wilson +6.5	±7.8 sampling range; effective 1 polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines)	R+8.0	roughly 16 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment	D+9.6	generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbency	none	open seat or incumbent not on ballot
Fundamentals estimate	Wilson +2.4	±14 typical error
Expert ratings (average)	Wilson +18.0	used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
Forecast	Wilson +6.0	±5.1 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

Polls only: Jermaine Johnson 11 in 100 (Likely R)
Polls + fundamentals: Jermaine Johnson 12 in 100 (Likely R)
Polls + fundamentals + experts: Jermaine Johnson <1 in 100 (Solid R)

Published ratings

Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.

Cook: Solid RDDHQ: Lean RFox News: Solid RInside Elections: Solid RRCP: Likely RSabato: Safe RSilver Bulletin: Solid R

County map

Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.

Color shows the 2024 presidential margin in each county. Hover or tap a county for its numbers.

2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.

Rules and notes

Term-limited

Governor races, closest first · this is #13 of 36