Governor · All South Dakota races

South Dakota

Likely R

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Dan Ahlers

Democratic

11 in 100

chance of winning, out of 100

Larry Rhoden

Republican · incumbent

89 in 100

Larry Rhoden wins in 89 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Larry Rhoden +16.9.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Rhoden +16.8; 80 in 100 fall between Rhoden +34.2 and Ahlers +0.8.

The candidates

Dan Ahlers

Democratic · American businessman and politician

Daniel Paul Ahlers is an American businessman and politician who served in both the South Dakota House of Representatives, from 2006 to 2008 and later from 2017 to 2019, and the South Dakota Senate, from 2008 to 2010. Wikipedia

Official website ↗

Larry RhodenIncumbent

Republican · Governor of South Dakota since 2025

Larry Robert Rhoden is an American politician and businessman serving since 2025 as the 34th governor of South Dakota. Wikipedia

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

Polls

No public polls have tested Dan Ahlers against Larry Rhoden yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

Ahlers +3 over the past 3 months

Out of 100. Today: Ahlers 11, Rhoden 89.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)	—	no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines)	R+15.0	roughly 30 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment	D+9.6	generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbency	Rhoden +4.0	incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimate	Rhoden +16.9	±14 typical error
Expert ratings (average)	Rhoden +22.0	used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
Forecast	Rhoden +16.9	±13.6 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

Polls only: Dan Ahlers 11 in 100 (Likely R)
Polls + fundamentals: Dan Ahlers 11 in 100 (Likely R)
Polls + fundamentals + experts: Dan Ahlers <1 in 100 (Solid R)

Published ratings

Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.

Cook: Solid RDDHQ: Safe RFox News: Solid RInside Elections: Solid RRCP: Solid RSabato: Safe RSilver Bulletin: Solid R

County map

Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.

Color shows the 2024 presidential margin in each county. Hover or tap a county for its numbers.

2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.

Rules and notes

Incumbent nominated to full term

Governor races, closest first · this is #14 of 36