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Wisconsin

Likely D

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David Crowley

Democratic

89 in 100

chance of winning, out of 100

Tom Tiffany

Republican

11 in 100

David Crowley wins in 89 of 100 simulations.

The polling average has David Crowley +4.2 across 9 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to David Crowley +9.6. Polls get 92% of the weight 15 days out.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Crowley +4.6; 80 in 100 fall between Tiffany +0.2 and Crowley +9.4.

The candidates

David Crowley

Democratic · American politician (born 1986)

David Carl Crowley is an American politician who has served as the seventh executive of Milwaukee County since 2020. A member of the Democratic Party, he previously represented Wisconsin's 17th Assembly district, including the west side of Milwaukee, from 2017 to 2020. Wikipedia

Official website ↗

Tom Tiffany

Republican · American politician (born 1957)

Thomas Patrick Tiffany is an American politician and businessman from Wisconsin. A member of the United States House of Representatives, he has represented Wisconsin's 7th congressional district since 2020. A member of the Republican Party, he is a member of the House Freedom Caucus. Wikipedia

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

Polls

The polling average stands at Crowley +4.2 across 9 polls testing David Crowley against Tom Tiffany.

Crowley +3.8 over the past 6 months

Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Result	Adjusted	Weight
Z to A Research · DEM sponsor for Rust Belt Rising	Sep 28–Oct 1	662 LV	Crowley +5.0	Crowley +5.0	0.33
Marquette University Law SchoolA	Sep 16–Sep 23	692 LV	Crowley +3.0	Crowley +3.2	0.58
Marquette University Law SchoolA	Aug 12–Aug 20	738 LV	Crowley +5.0	Crowley +6.3	0.41
Marquette University Law SchoolA	Aug 12–Aug 20	891 RV	Crowley +0.0	Crowley +1.3	0.45
TIPP InsightsA− · REP sponsor for League of American Workers	Aug 14–Aug 18	1,119 LV	Crowley +4.0	Crowley +4.2	0.27
TIPP InsightsA− · REP sponsor for League of American Workers	Aug 14–Aug 18	1,434 RV	Crowley +2.0	Crowley +2.2	0.31
Platform Communications	Aug 12–Aug 13	500 LV	Crowley +4.0	Crowley +4.9	0.33
GBAO StrategiesB− · DEM sponsor for Protect Our Wisconsin	Jul 30–Aug 3	800 LV	Crowley +3.0	Crowley +3.1	0.21
RMG ResearchA− for Napolitan Institute, Institute for Reforming Government	Jul 20–Jul 24	800 RV	Crowley +3.0	Crowley +6.8	0.49
TIPP InsightsA− · REP sponsor for League of American Workers	Mar 13–Mar 19	1,175 LV	Crowley +1.0	Crowley +2.0	0.00
TIPP InsightsA− · REP sponsor for League of American Workers	Mar 13–Mar 19	1,495 RV	Crowley +1.0	Crowley +2.1	0.00

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

Crowley +19 over the past 3 months

Out of 100. Today: Crowley 89, Tiffany 11.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 92% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)	Crowley +4.2	±2.4 sampling range; effective 8.3 polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines)	Even	roughly 0 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment	D+9.6	generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbency	none	open seat or incumbent not on ballot
Fundamentals estimate	Crowley +9.6	±14 typical error
Expert ratings (average)	Crowley +2.1	used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
Forecast	Crowley +4.6	±3.8 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

Polls only: David Crowley 86 in 100 (Likely D)
Polls + fundamentals: David Crowley 89 in 100 (Likely D)
Polls + fundamentals + experts: David Crowley 88 in 100 (Likely D)

Published ratings

Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.

Cook: TossupDDHQ: Lean DFox News: TossupInside Elections: TossupRCP: TossupSabato: Lean DSilver Bulletin: Lean D

County map

Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.

Color shows the 2024 presidential margin in each county. Hover or tap a county for its numbers.

2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.

Rules and notes

Incumbent retiring

Governor races, closest first · this is #15 of 36