Governor · open seat · All Colorado races

Colorado

Likely D

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Phil Weiser

Democratic

92 in 100

chance of winning, out of 100

Victor Marx

Republican

8 in 100

Phil Weiser wins in 92 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Phil Weiser +18.6.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Weiser +18.6; 80 in 100 fall between Weiser +1.4 and Weiser +36.0.

The candidates

Victor Marx

Republican · American political candidate (born 1965)

Victor Marx is an American author, minister, and political candidate. He is the Republican nominee for governor of Colorado in the 2026 election, where he will face the Democratic nominee Phil Weiser. Wikipedia

Official website ↗

Phil Weiser

Democratic · American lawyer and politician (born 1968)

Philip Jacob Weiser is an American attorney and politician who has served as the attorney general of Colorado since 2019. Wikipedia

Official website ↗

Stephen Hamilton

American Constitution

Greg Lopez

Independent

Eric Mulder

Libertarian

Jeff Peckman

Unity

Erik Underwood

Approval Voting

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

Polls

No public polls have tested Phil Weiser against Victor Marx yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

Weiser +5 over the past 3 months

Out of 100. Today: Weiser 92, Marx 8.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)	—	no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines)	D+6.0	roughly 12 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment	D+9.6	generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbency	none	open seat or incumbent not on ballot
Fundamentals estimate	Weiser +18.6	±14 typical error
Expert ratings (average)	Weiser +20.4	used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
Forecast	Weiser +18.6	±13.6 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

Polls only: Phil Weiser 92 in 100 (Likely D)
Polls + fundamentals: Phil Weiser 92 in 100 (Likely D)
Polls + fundamentals + experts: Phil Weiser >99 in 100 (Solid D)

Published ratings

Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.

Cook: Solid DDDHQ: Likely DFox News: Solid DInside Elections: Solid DRCP: Solid DSabato: Safe DSilver Bulletin: Solid D

County map

Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.

Color shows the 2024 presidential margin in each county. Hover or tap a county for its numbers.

2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.

Rules and notes

Term-limited

Governor races, closest first · this is #16 of 36