Governor · All Idaho races

Idaho

Likely R

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Terri Pickens

Democratic

8 in 100

chance of winning, out of 100

Brad Little

Republican · incumbent

92 in 100

Brad Little wins in 92 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Brad Little +19.5.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Little +19.5; 80 in 100 fall between Little +37.0 and Little +1.9.

The candidates

Brad LittleIncumbent

Republican · Governor of Idaho since 2019

Bradley Jay Little is an American politician serving since 2019 as the 33rd governor of Idaho. A member of the Republican Party, he served as the 42nd lieutenant governor of Idaho from 2009 to 2019 and as an Idaho state senator from 2001 to 2009. Wikipedia

Official website ↗

Terri Pickens

Democratic

No biography on file yet.

Pro-Life

Constitution

Paul Sand

Libertarian

John Stegner

Independent

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

Polls

No public polls have tested Terri Pickens against Brad Little yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

Pickens +2 over the past 3 months

Out of 100. Today: Pickens 8, Little 92.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)	—	no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines)	R+18.0	roughly 36 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment	D+9.6	generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbent’s track record	Pickens +1.9	In 2018 they ran 3.7 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10)
Incumbency	Little +4.0	incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimate	Little +19.5	±14 typical error
Expert ratings (average)	Little +22.0	used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
Forecast	Little +19.5	±13.6 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

Polls only: Terri Pickens 8 in 100 (Likely R)
Polls + fundamentals: Terri Pickens 8 in 100 (Likely R)
Polls + fundamentals + experts: Terri Pickens <1 in 100 (Solid R)

Published ratings

Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.

Cook: Solid RDDHQ: Safe RFox News: Solid RInside Elections: Solid RRCP: Solid RSabato: Safe RSilver Bulletin: Solid R

County map

Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.

Color shows the 2024 presidential margin in each county. Hover or tap a county for its numbers.

2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.

Rules and notes

Incumbent renominated

Governor races, closest first · this is #17 of 36