There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Eric Barlow +24.9.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Barlow +25.0; 80 in 100 fall between Barlow +42.5 and Barlow +7.6.
The candidates
EB
Eric Barlow
Republican · American politician (born 1966)
Eric Barlow is an American politician currently serving as a Republican member of the Wyoming Senate since 2023. He previously served as the speaker of the Wyoming House of Representatives from 2021 to 2023 and as a member of the chamber representing District 3 from 2013 to 2023. Wikipedia
KC
Kenneth Casner
Democratic
No biography on file yet.
JK
Joseph Kibler
Constitution
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.
Polls
No public polls have tested Kenneth Casner against Eric Barlow yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Casner +1 over the past 3 months
Out of 100. Today: Casner 3, Barlow 97.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
Polling average (after adjustments)
—
no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines)
R+23.0
roughly 46 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment
D+9.6
generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbency
none
open seat or incumbent not on ballot
Fundamentals estimate
Barlow +24.9
±14 typical error
Expert ratings (average)
Barlow +22.0
used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
Forecast
Barlow +24.9
±13.6 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day
All three versions
Polls only: Kenneth Casner 3 in 100 (Solid R)
Polls + fundamentals: Kenneth Casner 3 in 100 (Solid R)