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Iowa

Solid DLikely flip · R → D

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Republicans hold this seat today (current holder); Democrats are favored: 97 in 100 that it changes hands.

Rob Sand

Democratic

97 in 100

chance of winning, out of 100

Zach Lahn

Republican

3 in 100

Rob Sand wins in 97 of 100 simulations.

The polling average has Rob Sand +7.7 across 15 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Rob Sand +0.6. Polls get 92% of the weight 15 days out.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Sand +7.1; 80 in 100 fall between Sand +2.3 and Sand +11.9.

The candidates

Zach Lahn

Republican

No biography on file yet.

Rob Sand

Democratic · American politician (born 1982)

Robert Howard Sand is an American lawyer and politician who has served since 2019 as the 33rd state auditor of Iowa. A member of the Democratic Party, he was the assistant attorney general of Iowa from 2010 to 2017. In 2018, he ran for state auditor, defeating Republican incumbent Mary Mosiman. Wikipedia

Official website ↗

Sondra Wilson

Independent

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

Polls

The polling average stands at Sand +7.7 across 15 polls testing Rob Sand against Zach Lahn.

Lahn +3.7 over the past 6 months

Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Result	Adjusted	Weight
YouGovA−	Oct 6–Oct 12	2,245 LV	Sand +6.0	Sand +6.2	0.80
Marist University	Oct 8–Oct 11	1,100 LV	Sand +7.0	Sand +4.7	0.47
Emerson CollegeA− for Nexstar Media	Oct 5–Oct 6	650 LV	Sand +3.7	Sand +4.1	0.36
CNN/SSRSB−	Sep 29–Oct 5	801 LV	Sand +9.0	Sand +8.5	0.44
The New York Times/Siena UniversityA	Sep 22–Oct 1	606 LV	Sand +11.0	Sand +12.6	0.41
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchA for Fox News	Sep 24–Sep 28	1,008 LV	Sand +9.0	Sand +8.3	0.38
Marist University	Sep 17–Sep 20	1,050 RV	Sand +12.0	Sand +10.2	0.16
co/efficientB · REP sponsor	Sep 14–Sep 16	831 LV	Sand +4.0	Sand +8.2	0.11
YouGovA−	Sep 3–Sep 8	2,041 LV	Sand +10.0	Sand +11.1	0.14
YouGovA−	Sep 3–Sep 8	2,167 RV	Sand +11.0	Sand +12.1	0.15
Emerson CollegeA− for Nexstar Media	Aug 31–Sep 1	750 LV	Sand +3.0	Sand +4.6	0.07
Wedgewood Polls	Aug 27–Aug 29	600 LV	Sand +5.0	Sand +6.5	0.06
Suffolk UniversityA−	Aug 20–Aug 23	500 LV	Sand +4.2	Sand +4.4	0.06
Emerson CollegeA− for Nexstar Media	Aug 2–Aug 4	712 LV	Sand +5.0	Sand +6.6	0.02
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchA for Fox News	Jun 23–Jun 27	1,003 RV	Sand +9.0	Sand +9.7	0.00
CygnalA+ · REP sponsor for Iowans for Tax Relief	Jun 16–Jun 19	600 LV	Sand +4.3	Sand +5.7	0.00
The New York Times/Siena UniversityA	Jun 15–Jun 17	600 LV	Sand +1.0	Sand +3.9	0.00
Echelon InsightsA− for NetChoice	Apr 3–Apr 9	377 LV	Sand +12.0	Sand +14.9	0.00
GBAO StrategiesB− · DEM sponsor for Moderate Democrats PAC	Mar 10–Mar 16	1,200 LV	Sand +8.0	Sand +8.9	0.00
Z to A Research · DEM sponsor	Oct 9–Oct 13	1,351 LV	Sand +2.0	Sand +5.2	0.00

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

Sand +21 over the past 3 months

Out of 100. Today: Sand 97, Lahn 3.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 92% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)	Sand +7.7	±2.4 sampling range; effective 8.3 polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines)	R+6.0	roughly 12 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment	D+9.6	generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbency	none	open seat or incumbent not on ballot
Fundamentals estimate	Sand +0.6	±14 typical error
Expert ratings (average)	Sand +5.5	used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
Forecast	Sand +7.1	±3.8 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

Polls only: Rob Sand 97 in 100 (Solid D)
Polls + fundamentals: Rob Sand 97 in 100 (Solid D)
Polls + fundamentals + experts: Rob Sand 97 in 100 (Solid D)

Published ratings

Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.

Cook: Lean D (flip)DDHQ: Lean D (flip)Fox News: Lean D (flip)Inside Elections: Tilt D (flip)RCP: Lean D (flip)Sabato: Lean D (flip)Silver Bulletin: Likely D (flip)

County map

Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.

Color shows the 2024 presidential margin in each county. Hover or tap a county for its numbers.

2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.

Rules and notes

Incumbent retiring

Governor races, closest first · this is #19 of 36