Skip to content
Bellwether
LatestAll updates →
Governor · open seat · All Alaska races

Alaska

Solid DLikely flip · R → D
Compare

Republicans hold this seat today (current holder); Democrats are favored: 98 in 100 that it changes hands.

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
Democratic
98 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Bernadette Wilson
Republican
2 in 100

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins wins in 98 of 100 simulations.

The polling average has Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins +10.8 across 3 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins +0.6. Polls get 88% of the weight 15 days out.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Kreiss-Tomkins +9.5; 80 in 100 fall between Kreiss-Tomkins +3.5 and Kreiss-Tomkins +15.6.

Wilson +30Wilson +20Wilson +10Kreiss-Tomkins +10Kreiss-Tomkins +20Kreiss-Tomkins +30Tie

The candidates

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
Democratic · American politician (born 1989)

Jonathan S. Kreiss-Tomkins, also known as JKT, is an American politician who was a member of the Alaska House of Representatives from 2013 to 2023. Wikipedia

Bernadette Wilson
Republican
No biography on file yet.
Dave Bronson
Republican
Treg Taylor
Republican

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

Polls

The polling average stands at Kreiss-Tomkins +10.8 across 3 polls testing Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins against Bernadette Wilson.

Kreiss-Tomkins +1.0 since Sep 11, 2026
Wilson +20Wilson +10EvenKreiss-Tomkins +10Kreiss-Tomkins +20Sep 13Sep 20Sep 27Oct 4Oct 11Oct 18

Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.

PollsterDatesSampleResultAdjustedWeight
The New York Times/Siena UniversityASep 24–Oct 1431 LVKreiss-Tomkins +4.0Kreiss-Tomkins +5.60.74
CygnalA+ · REP sponsorSep 24–Sep 27502 LVKreiss-Tomkins +20.0Kreiss-Tomkins +19.90.42
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact ResearchB
for AARP
Sep 8–Sep 11800 LVKreiss-Tomkins +10.0Kreiss-Tomkins +10.80.55

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

Kreiss-Tomkins +53 over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Kreiss-Tomkins 98, Wilson 2.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 88% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)Kreiss-Tomkins +10.8±6.6 sampling range; effective 2.9 polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) R+6.0roughly 12 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbencynoneopen seat or incumbent not on ballot
Fundamentals estimateKreiss-Tomkins +0.6±14 typical error
Expert ratings (average)Kreiss-Tomkins +3.7used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastKreiss-Tomkins +9.6±4.8 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 98 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 98 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 98 in 100 (Solid D)

Published ratings

Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.

Cook: Lean D (flip)DDHQ: TossupFox News: TossupInside Elections: TossupRCP: Lean D (flip)Sabato: Lean D (flip)Silver Bulletin: Likely D (flip)

County map

County detail isn’t shown for Alaska: Alaska reports results by state House district, not by county.

Rules and notes

  • Ranked-choice voting in the general election. The forecast models the final two-candidate round.
  • Alaska uses a top-four primary, so more than one candidate from a party can be on the ballot.
  • Term-limited

Governor races, closest first · this is #20 of 36