Kelly Ayotte wins in 98 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Kelly Ayotte +9.6 across 7 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Cinde Warmington +8.5. Polls get 91% of the weight 15 days out.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Ayotte +8.1; 80 in 100 fall between Ayotte +13.1 and Ayotte +3.1.
Kelly Ann Ayotte is an American attorney and politician serving since 2025 as the 83rd governor of New Hampshire. A member of the Republican Party, she served from 2011 to 2017 as a United States senator from New Hampshire and from 2004 to 2009 as the 27th attorney general of New Hampshire. Wikipedia
Official website ↗Cinde Warmington is an American attorney, politician, and former lobbyist. As a Democrat, she served as a member of the Executive Council of New Hampshire from 2021 to 2025. Wikipedia
Official website ↗Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.
The polling average stands at Ayotte +9.7 across 7 polls testing Cinde Warmington against Kelly Ayotte.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena UniversityA | Sep 15–Sep 22 | 613 LV | Ayotte +11.0 | Ayotte +9.4 | 0.74 |
| University of New HampshireB+ | Sep 17–Sep 21 | 1,418 LV | Ayotte +4.0 | Ayotte +3.7 | 0.55 |
| co/efficientB | Sep 9–Sep 11 | 958 LV | Ayotte +21.0 | Ayotte +16.4 | 0.62 |
| University of New HampshireB+ | Aug 20–Aug 24 | 1,878 LV | Ayotte +10.0 | Ayotte +8.9 | 0.38 |
| Saint Anselm College Survey CenterB+ | Aug 17–Aug 18 | 1,411 LV | Ayotte +11.0 | Ayotte +10.8 | 0.54 |
| Saint AnselmB+ | Jun 24–Jun 25 | 1,614 RV | Ayotte +8.0 | Ayotte +6.4 | 0.22 |
| University of New HampshireB+ | Jun 18–Jun 23 | — | Ayotte +5.0 | Ayotte +3.6 | 0.07 |
| University of New HampshireB+ | Apr 17–Apr 21 | 1,117 LV | Ayotte +8.0 | Ayotte +6.4 | 0.00 |
| Saint AnselmB+ | Mar 16–Mar 18 | 1,491 RV | Ayotte +7.0 | Ayotte +5.0 | 0.00 |
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Warmington 2, Ayotte 98.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 91% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Ayotte +9.7 | ±3.4 sampling range; effective 5.7 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+2.0 | roughly 4 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Ayotte +0.1 | In 2016 they ran 0.2 pts more Republican than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Ayotte +4.0 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Warmington +8.5 | ±14 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | Ayotte +12.4 | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Ayotte +8.1 | ±4.0 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.
Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.
2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.
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