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U.S. House · All California races

California District 1

Solid DLikely flip · R → D
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Republicans hold this seat today (the sitting member’s party; the lines are new); Democrats are favored: >99 in 100 that it changes hands.

Mike McGuire
Democratic
>99 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
James Gallagher
Republican · incumbent
<1 in 100

Mike McGuire wins in >99 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Mike McGuire +20.2.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin McGuire +20.2; 80 in 100 fall between McGuire +12.9 and McGuire +27.5.

Gallagher +30Gallagher +20Gallagher +10McGuire +10McGuire +20McGuire +30Tie

The candidates

James GallagherIncumbent
Republican
Raised
$1.9M
Cash on hand
$233K
Through 2026-09-30
No biography on file yet.
Mike McGuire
Democratic
Raised
$2.2M
Cash on hand
$207K
Through 2026-09-30
No biography on file yet.

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Mike McGuire against James Gallagher yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: McGuire 100, Gallagher 0.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) D+7.0roughly 14 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
IncumbencyGallagher +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateMcGuire +20.2±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastMcGuire +20.2±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Mike McGuire >99 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Mike McGuire >99 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Mike McGuire >99 in 100 (Solid D)

Rules and notes

  • Top-two primary state: the two general-election candidates can be from the same party.
  • Incumbent advanced to general

House races, closest first · this is #163 of 421