Mike Kelly wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Mike Kelly +18.7.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Kelly +18.7; 80 in 100 fall between Kelly +26.0 and Kelly +11.4.
George Joseph "Mike" Kelly Jr. is an American politician and businessman who has been a U.S. representative since 2011, currently representing Pennsylvania's 16th congressional district. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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No public polls have tested Justin Wagner against Mike Kelly yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Wagner <1, Kelly >99.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+11.0 | roughly 22 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Kelly +0.7 | In 2024 they ran 1.4 pts more Republican than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Kelly +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Kelly +18.7 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Kelly +18.7 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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