Tony Kozycki
Democratic
Raised$883K
Cash on hand$683K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · All Georgia races
Georgia District 7
Solid R
Tony Kozycki
Democratic
<1 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Rich McCormick
Republican · incumbent
>99 in 100
Rich McCormick wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Rich McCormick +19.0.
Chance no one clears 50% and the race goes to a December runoff: <1 in 100 (rough estimate from the projected margin).
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin McCormick +19.0; 80 in 100 fall between McCormick +26.3 and McCormick +11.6.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Rich McCormickIncumbent
Republican · American politician (born 1968)
Richard Dean McCormick is an American physician and politician. A member of the Republican Party, he has represented Georgia in the United States House of Representatives since 2023. Until 2025, he represented the 6th congressional district. In 2024, he was elected to represent the 7th congressional district. Wikipedia
Raised$2.2M
Cash on hand$1.3M
Through 2026-09-30
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →
Polls
No public polls have tested Tony Kozycki against Rich McCormick yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Kozycki <1, McCormick >99.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+11.0 | roughly 22 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | McCormick +2.0 | In 2024 they ran 4.0 pts more Republican than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | McCormick +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | McCormick +19.0 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | McCormick +19.0 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Tony Kozycki <1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Tony Kozycki <1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Tony Kozycki <1 in 100 (Solid R)
Rules and notes
- Georgia requires a majority: if no candidate tops 50%, the top two meet in a runoff.
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #161 of 421