Doug Ollivant
Republican
Raised$378K
Cash on hand$117K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · All Virginia races
Virginia District 7
Solid D
Eugene Vindman
Democratic · incumbent
>99 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Doug Ollivant
Republican
<1 in 100
Eugene Vindman wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Eugene Vindman +19.8.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Vindman +19.7; 80 in 100 fall between Vindman +12.5 and Vindman +27.0.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Eugene VindmanIncumbent
Democratic · American military officer and politician (born 1975)
Eugene Semyon Vindman is an American politician, lawyer, and retired U.S. Army officer serving as the U.S. representative for Virginia's 7th congressional district since 2025. Wikipedia
Raised$15.5M
Cash on hand$5.8M
Through 2026-09-30
Alaha Ahrar
Independent
Taner Demirci Lopez
Libertarian
Joshua Ertle
Independent
Randall Terry
Independent
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →
Polls
No public polls have tested Eugene Vindman against Doug Ollivant yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Vindman >99, Ollivant <1.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+2.0 | roughly 4 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Vindman +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Vindman +19.8 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Vindman +19.8 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Eugene Vindman >99 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals: Eugene Vindman >99 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Eugene Vindman >99 in 100 (Solid D)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #160 of 421