Carey Coleman
Republican
Raised$167K
Cash on hand$61K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · All Ohio races
Ohio District 13
Solid D
Emilia Sykes
Democratic · incumbent
>99 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Carey Coleman
Republican
<1 in 100
Emilia Sykes wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Emilia Sykes +19.8.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Sykes +19.8; 80 in 100 fall between Sykes +12.5 and Sykes +27.1.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Emilia SykesIncumbent
Democratic · American politician (born 1986)
Emilia Strong Sykes is an American politician serving as the U.S. representative for Ohio's 13th congressional district since 2023. A member of the Democratic Party, she formerly represented the 34th district of the Ohio House of Representatives, which consists of portions of the Akron area. Wikipedia
Raised$3.9M
Cash on hand$1.1M
Through 2026-09-30
Sandeep Dixit
Independent
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →
Polls
No public polls have tested Emilia Sykes against Carey Coleman yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Sykes >99, Coleman <1.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+2.0 | roughly 4 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Sykes +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Sykes +19.8 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Sykes +19.8 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Emilia Sykes >99 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals: Emilia Sykes >99 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Emilia Sykes >99 in 100 (Solid D)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #159 of 421